Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 18?
32°C 30%
31°C 29%
30°C 19%
33°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
9%
30°C
19%
31°C
29%
32°C
30%
33°C
12%
34°C
5%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 30%
31°C 29%
30°C 19%
33°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 18, 2026
28°C or below
$149 Vol.
4%
29°C
$19 Vol.
9%
30°C
$10 Vol.
19%
31°C
$77 Vol.
29%
32°C
$35 Vol.
30%
33°C
$1,409 Vol.
12%
34°C
$54 Vol.
5%
35°C
$49 Vol.
1%
36°C
$63 Vol.
1%
37°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$228 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,139End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,139End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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