Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?
34°C 31%
33°C 25%
32°C 15%
35°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
15%
33°C
25%
34°C
31%
35°C
15%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 31%
33°C 25%
32°C 15%
35°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
$1,156 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$408 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$90 Vol.
1%
31°C
$3 Vol.
4%
32°C
$116 Vol.
15%
33°C
$148 Vol.
25%
34°C
$122 Vol.
31%
35°C
$199 Vol.
15%
36°C
$316 Vol.
8%
37°C
$86 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$422 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,066End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,066End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing Tokyo’s July 16 maximum near 33–34 °C because operational forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Recent ensemble runs cluster daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding 1–2 °C above surrounding areas. Key variables separating the closely matched 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes include minor differences in model timing of any sea-breeze onset and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift peak readings by 1 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next 12–24 h of updated guidance from JMA will likely tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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