Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs place Paris maximum temperatures on July 14 in the 34–37 °C range under a persistent warm-air advection pattern and surface high pressure favoring clear skies and subsidence warming. Model spread between ECMWF and GFS solutions, combined with uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development, keeps the 35 °C, 36 °C, and 37 °C outcomes nearly equal in trader weighting. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris and the precise timing of the daily peak relative to observational windows further differentiate these closely spaced bins, while the next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and surface observations will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on July 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 14?
35°C 36%
36°C 33%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
18%
35°C
36%
36°C
33%
37°C
13%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 36%
36°C 33%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
31°C or below
$28 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$40 Vol.
1%
33°C
$47 Vol.
4%
34°C
$168 Vol.
18%
35°C
$64 Vol.
36%
36°C
$66 Vol.
33%
37°C
$569 Vol.
13%
38°C
$147 Vol.
4%
39°C
$32 Vol.
1%
40°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$282 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs place Paris maximum temperatures on July 14 in the 34–37 °C range under a persistent warm-air advection pattern and surface high pressure favoring clear skies and subsidence warming. Model spread between ECMWF and GFS solutions, combined with uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development, keeps the 35 °C, 36 °C, and 37 °C outcomes nearly equal in trader weighting. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris and the precise timing of the daily peak relative to observational windows further differentiate these closely spaced bins, while the next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and surface observations will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,554End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs place Paris maximum temperatures on July 14 in the 34–37 °C range under a persistent warm-air advection pattern and surface high pressure favoring clear skies and subsidence warming. Model spread between ECMWF and GFS solutions, combined with uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development, keeps the 35 °C, 36 °C, and 37 °C outcomes nearly equal in trader weighting. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris and the precise timing of the daily peak relative to observational windows further differentiate these closely spaced bins, while the next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and surface observations will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,554End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble runs place Paris maximum temperatures on July 14 in the 34–37 °C range under a persistent warm-air advection pattern and surface high pressure favoring clear skies and subsidence warming. Model spread between ECMWF and GFS solutions, combined with uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convective development, keeps the 35 °C, 36 °C, and 37 °C outcomes nearly equal in trader weighting. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris and the precise timing of the daily peak relative to observational windows further differentiate these closely spaced bins, while the next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and surface observations will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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