Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions yielding a Paris minimum near 21–22 °C on July 14, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities around those levels. Persistent warm-air advection from the south and elevated dew points have kept recent overnight lows in the 20–22 °C range, limiting further cooling despite light winds. Urban heat-island effects in central Paris further anchor the floor above typical July climatology of ~14–16 °C. Resolution hinges on the final 00–06 UTC observations; any increase in cloud cover or stronger boundary-layer mixing in the next 48-hour model updates could shift the minimum upward, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the lower tail of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 14?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 14?
20°C or below 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,143 Vol.
$16,143 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
20°C or below
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
20°C or below 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,143 Vol.
$16,143 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
20°C or below
$1,786 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$6,091 Vol.
No
22°C
$845 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,586 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,386 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,009 Vol.
No
26°C
$661 Vol.
No
27°C
$421 Vol.
No
28°C
$594 Vol.
No
29°C
$304 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$460 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions yielding a Paris minimum near 21–22 °C on July 14, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities around those levels. Persistent warm-air advection from the south and elevated dew points have kept recent overnight lows in the 20–22 °C range, limiting further cooling despite light winds. Urban heat-island effects in central Paris further anchor the floor above typical July climatology of ~14–16 °C. Resolution hinges on the final 00–06 UTC observations; any increase in cloud cover or stronger boundary-layer mixing in the next 48-hour model updates could shift the minimum upward, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the lower tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,143End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions yielding a Paris minimum near 21–22 °C on July 14, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities around those levels. Persistent warm-air advection from the south and elevated dew points have kept recent overnight lows in the 20–22 °C range, limiting further cooling despite light winds. Urban heat-island effects in central Paris further anchor the floor above typical July climatology of ~14–16 °C. Resolution hinges on the final 00–06 UTC observations; any increase in cloud cover or stronger boundary-layer mixing in the next 48-hour model updates could shift the minimum upward, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the lower tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,143End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions yielding a Paris minimum near 21–22 °C on July 14, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities around those levels. Persistent warm-air advection from the south and elevated dew points have kept recent overnight lows in the 20–22 °C range, limiting further cooling despite light winds. Urban heat-island effects in central Paris further anchor the floor above typical July climatology of ~14–16 °C. Resolution hinges on the final 00–06 UTC observations; any increase in cloud cover or stronger boundary-layer mixing in the next 48-hour model updates could shift the minimum upward, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the lower tail of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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