Current forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicate a daily maximum temperature near 25°C for Mexico City on July 19, aligning with the market's leading 38.5% implied probability for that outcome and 27.5% for 26°C. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's high-altitude subtropical highland climate typically moderates July highs to an average of 23–24°C during the rainy season, when afternoon convective showers and cloud cover limit solar heating and peak temperatures. Recent model runs show no significant deviation from these norms, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 24–26°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 27°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance closer to resolution will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on July 19?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 19?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$34,035 Vol.
$34,035 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$34,035 Vol.
$34,035 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
19°C or below
$1,732 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,153 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,319 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,340 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,304 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,970 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,083 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$8,207 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,979 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,200 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$747 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicate a daily maximum temperature near 25°C for Mexico City on July 19, aligning with the market's leading 38.5% implied probability for that outcome and 27.5% for 26°C. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's high-altitude subtropical highland climate typically moderates July highs to an average of 23–24°C during the rainy season, when afternoon convective showers and cloud cover limit solar heating and peak temperatures. Recent model runs show no significant deviation from these norms, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 24–26°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 27°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance closer to resolution will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$34,035End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicate a daily maximum temperature near 25°C for Mexico City on July 19, aligning with the market's leading 38.5% implied probability for that outcome and 27.5% for 26°C. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's high-altitude subtropical highland climate typically moderates July highs to an average of 23–24°C during the rainy season, when afternoon convective showers and cloud cover limit solar heating and peak temperatures. Recent model runs show no significant deviation from these norms, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 24–26°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 27°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance closer to resolution will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,035End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and regional analyses indicate a daily maximum temperature near 25°C for Mexico City on July 19, aligning with the market's leading 38.5% implied probability for that outcome and 27.5% for 26°C. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's high-altitude subtropical highland climate typically moderates July highs to an average of 23–24°C during the rainy season, when afternoon convective showers and cloud cover limit solar heating and peak temperatures. Recent model runs show no significant deviation from these norms, with light precipitation expected to cap extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 24–26°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 27°C or below 23°C. Updated guidance closer to resolution will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions