Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 19?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Vol.
$27,578 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Vol.
$27,578 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
$380 Vol.
No
24°C
$743 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,725 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,674 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,648 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,300 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$3,987 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,749 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,140 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,006 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$225 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$27,578End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,578End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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