Latest short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS indicates a modest cool anomaly for Amsterdam on July 19, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 18–19 °C under increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow off the cooler North Sea. This places the outcome modestly below the mid-July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Key variables driving the tight spread between 18 °C and 19 °C include uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud development and the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, each of which can alter peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing by 1–2 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread overall, but traders are weighting the lower bins more heavily given persistent marine influence and modest forecast confidence this close to the event. Updated KNMI and high-resolution runs on July 18–19 will likely refine the final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 19?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 19?
19°C 45%
18°C 30%
20°C 20%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
30%
19°C
45%
20°C
20%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 45%
18°C 30%
20°C 20%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
15°C or below
$107 Vol.
1%
16°C
$58 Vol.
1%
17°C
$230 Vol.
4%
18°C
$96 Vol.
30%
19°C
$126 Vol.
45%
20°C
$65 Vol.
20%
21°C
$40 Vol.
5%
22°C
$54 Vol.
1%
23°C
$135 Vol.
1%
24°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$64 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS indicates a modest cool anomaly for Amsterdam on July 19, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 18–19 °C under increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow off the cooler North Sea. This places the outcome modestly below the mid-July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Key variables driving the tight spread between 18 °C and 19 °C include uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud development and the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, each of which can alter peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing by 1–2 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread overall, but traders are weighting the lower bins more heavily given persistent marine influence and modest forecast confidence this close to the event. Updated KNMI and high-resolution runs on July 18–19 will likely refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,035End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS indicates a modest cool anomaly for Amsterdam on July 19, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 18–19 °C under increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow off the cooler North Sea. This places the outcome modestly below the mid-July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Key variables driving the tight spread between 18 °C and 19 °C include uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud development and the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, each of which can alter peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing by 1–2 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread overall, but traders are weighting the lower bins more heavily given persistent marine influence and modest forecast confidence this close to the event. Updated KNMI and high-resolution runs on July 18–19 will likely refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,035End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS indicates a modest cool anomaly for Amsterdam on July 19, with maximum temperatures most likely peaking near 18–19 °C under increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow off the cooler North Sea. This places the outcome modestly below the mid-July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Key variables driving the tight spread between 18 °C and 19 °C include uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud development and the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, each of which can alter peak insolation and boundary-layer mixing by 1–2 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread overall, but traders are weighting the lower bins more heavily given persistent marine influence and modest forecast confidence this close to the event. Updated KNMI and high-resolution runs on July 18–19 will likely refine the final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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