**Recent forecasts place Seoul’s overnight low for July 19 near the long-term July average of 22–24 °C, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24 °C.** This distribution reflects ongoing influence from the East Asian summer monsoon and a strengthened North Pacific High, which maintain high humidity and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula—linked to the 2026 El Niño transition—have kept baseline minimums elevated, while urban heat-island effects in Seoul further reduce the diurnal range. Short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover and light wind patterns; any increase in low-level moisture or scattered precipitation would favor the lower end (21–22 °C), whereas clearer skies could push the minimum toward 24–25 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent 48-hour model runs and KMA updates that refine the expected minimum temperature range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on July 19?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 19?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$24,381 Vol.
$24,381 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$24,381 Vol.
$24,381 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
19°C or below
$3,118 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,082 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,933 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,428 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,616 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$3,116 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,095 Vol.
No
26°C
$827 Vol.
No
27°C
$357 Vol.
No
28°C
$358 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$451 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts place Seoul’s overnight low for July 19 near the long-term July average of 22–24 °C, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24 °C.**
This distribution reflects ongoing influence from the East Asian summer monsoon and a strengthened North Pacific High, which maintain high humidity and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula—linked to the 2026 El Niño transition—have kept baseline minimums elevated, while urban heat-island effects in Seoul further reduce the diurnal range.
Short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover and light wind patterns; any increase in low-level moisture or scattered precipitation would favor the lower end (21–22 °C), whereas clearer skies could push the minimum toward 24–25 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent 48-hour model runs and KMA updates that refine the expected minimum temperature range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,381End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts place Seoul’s overnight low for July 19 near the long-term July average of 22–24 °C, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24 °C.**
This distribution reflects ongoing influence from the East Asian summer monsoon and a strengthened North Pacific High, which maintain high humidity and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula—linked to the 2026 El Niño transition—have kept baseline minimums elevated, while urban heat-island effects in Seoul further reduce the diurnal range.
Short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover and light wind patterns; any increase in low-level moisture or scattered precipitation would favor the lower end (21–22 °C), whereas clearer skies could push the minimum toward 24–25 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent 48-hour model runs and KMA updates that refine the expected minimum temperature range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,381End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent forecasts place Seoul’s overnight low for July 19 near the long-term July average of 22–24 °C, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24 °C.** This distribution reflects ongoing influence from the East Asian summer monsoon and a strengthened North Pacific High, which maintain high humidity and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula—linked to the 2026 El Niño transition—have kept baseline minimums elevated, while urban heat-island effects in Seoul further reduce the diurnal range. Short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover and light wind patterns; any increase in low-level moisture or scattered precipitation would favor the lower end (21–22 °C), whereas clearer skies could push the minimum toward 24–25 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent 48-hour model runs and KMA updates that refine the expected minimum temperature range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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