Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles indicate Moscow’s July 19 daytime maximum will likely fall in the 26–28 °C range under a building surface high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, allowing stronger solar insolation. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–28 °C. A modest warm anomaly relative to the 23–25 °C July climatological mean stems from the recent relaxation of a transient upper-level trough that had produced cooler, more stable conditions earlier in mid-July. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of any weak frontal passage or increased boundary-layer moisture, which could cap temperatures near 25 °C versus clearer, drier conditions favoring 28–29 °C; updated model guidance and official Russian meteorological service observations on July 18 will further refine these short-term uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 19?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$39,969 Vol.
$39,969 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$39,969 Vol.
$39,969 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
$344 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,447 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,605 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,792 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,704 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,955 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,668 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,224 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,411 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,878 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$941 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles indicate Moscow’s July 19 daytime maximum will likely fall in the 26–28 °C range under a building surface high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, allowing stronger solar insolation. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–28 °C. A modest warm anomaly relative to the 23–25 °C July climatological mean stems from the recent relaxation of a transient upper-level trough that had produced cooler, more stable conditions earlier in mid-July. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of any weak frontal passage or increased boundary-layer moisture, which could cap temperatures near 25 °C versus clearer, drier conditions favoring 28–29 °C; updated model guidance and official Russian meteorological service observations on July 18 will further refine these short-term uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$39,969End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles indicate Moscow’s July 19 daytime maximum will likely fall in the 26–28 °C range under a building surface high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, allowing stronger solar insolation. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–28 °C. A modest warm anomaly relative to the 23–25 °C July climatological mean stems from the recent relaxation of a transient upper-level trough that had produced cooler, more stable conditions earlier in mid-July. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of any weak frontal passage or increased boundary-layer moisture, which could cap temperatures near 25 °C versus clearer, drier conditions favoring 28–29 °C; updated model guidance and official Russian meteorological service observations on July 18 will further refine these short-term uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,969End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles indicate Moscow’s July 19 daytime maximum will likely fall in the 26–28 °C range under a building surface high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, allowing stronger solar insolation. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–28 °C. A modest warm anomaly relative to the 23–25 °C July climatological mean stems from the recent relaxation of a transient upper-level trough that had produced cooler, more stable conditions earlier in mid-July. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of any weak frontal passage or increased boundary-layer moisture, which could cap temperatures near 25 °C versus clearer, drier conditions favoring 28–29 °C; updated model guidance and official Russian meteorological service observations on July 18 will further refine these short-term uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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