Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 20, driven by hourly observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 24°C amid mostly overcast skies. Recent METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration guidance align with this, showing temperatures hovering around 23°C with low visibility and light rain in the evening, suppressing further solar heating consistent with cloudy spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin. Historical April highs average 22°C, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing for a brief spike to 25°C+ or a data revision from preliminary readings, with final daily records expected tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 20?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 20?
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$88,355 Vol.
$88,355 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$88,355 Vol.
$88,355 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
17°C or below
$1,637 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,414 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,354 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,803 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,433 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,211 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,764 Vol.
No
24°C
$12,974 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$11,588 Vol.
No
26°C
$10,485 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$17,692 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 20, driven by hourly observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 24°C amid mostly overcast skies. Recent METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration guidance align with this, showing temperatures hovering around 23°C with low visibility and light rain in the evening, suppressing further solar heating consistent with cloudy spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin. Historical April highs average 22°C, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing for a brief spike to 25°C+ or a data revision from preliminary readings, with final daily records expected tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$88,355End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 20, driven by hourly observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 24°C amid mostly overcast skies. Recent METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration guidance align with this, showing temperatures hovering around 23°C with low visibility and light rain in the evening, suppressing further solar heating consistent with cloudy spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin. Historical April highs average 22°C, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing for a brief spike to 25°C+ or a data revision from preliminary readings, with final daily records expected tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$88,355End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C in Chengdu on April 20, driven by hourly observational data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of 24°C amid mostly overcast skies. Recent METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration guidance align with this, showing temperatures hovering around 23°C with low visibility and light rain in the evening, suppressing further solar heating consistent with cloudy spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin. Historical April highs average 22°C, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing for a brief spike to 25°C+ or a data revision from preliminary readings, with final daily records expected tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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