Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate Chicago's August 16 high will likely reach the mid-80s, driven by southwesterly flow under a weak ridge and moderating lake breezes that limit stronger warming. This aligns with the market's leading 86-87°F outcome at 45% implied probability, as traders weigh the climatological normal of 82.7°F against current conditions slightly above baseline without extreme heat advection. Updated short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with minimal risk of 90°F+ thresholds given stable atmospheric profiles and no incoming frontal systems. Historical analogs from similar late-summer setups reinforce the narrow probability distribution favoring 84-87°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 16?
86-87°F 55%
84-85°F 28%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
55%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 55%
84-85°F 28%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
77°F or below
$779 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$59 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$131 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$305 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$649 Vol.
28%
86-87°F
$228 Vol.
55%
88-89°F
$387 Vol.
18%
90-91°F
$949 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$74 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$237 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate Chicago's August 16 high will likely reach the mid-80s, driven by southwesterly flow under a weak ridge and moderating lake breezes that limit stronger warming. This aligns with the market's leading 86-87°F outcome at 45% implied probability, as traders weigh the climatological normal of 82.7°F against current conditions slightly above baseline without extreme heat advection. Updated short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with minimal risk of 90°F+ thresholds given stable atmospheric profiles and no incoming frontal systems. Historical analogs from similar late-summer setups reinforce the narrow probability distribution favoring 84-87°F bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ET
Volume
$3,952End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate Chicago's August 16 high will likely reach the mid-80s, driven by southwesterly flow under a weak ridge and moderating lake breezes that limit stronger warming. This aligns with the market's leading 86-87°F outcome at 45% implied probability, as traders weigh the climatological normal of 82.7°F against current conditions slightly above baseline without extreme heat advection. Updated short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with minimal risk of 90°F+ thresholds given stable atmospheric profiles and no incoming frontal systems. Historical analogs from similar late-summer setups reinforce the narrow probability distribution favoring 84-87°F bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,952End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate Chicago's August 16 high will likely reach the mid-80s, driven by southwesterly flow under a weak ridge and moderating lake breezes that limit stronger warming. This aligns with the market's leading 86-87°F outcome at 45% implied probability, as traders weigh the climatological normal of 82.7°F against current conditions slightly above baseline without extreme heat advection. Updated short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with minimal risk of 90°F+ thresholds given stable atmospheric profiles and no incoming frontal systems. Historical analogs from similar late-summer setups reinforce the narrow probability distribution favoring 84-87°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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