Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 84°F for Chicago on August 15 amid showers and southeasterly flow, yet trader consensus centers on 80–83°F as the most probable range due to persistent cloud cover and precipitation that limits daytime heating. A mid-August cold front and associated moisture from a recent derecho event across northern Illinois continue to moderate temperatures below seasonal normals of 82–83°F, while model consensus shows limited intensification potential without clearer skies. Upcoming NWS updates and afternoon observations will refine these atmospheric conditions, with any reduction in cloud thickness or delayed rain timing potentially shifting odds toward the upper end of the 80–85°F band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
80-81°F 41%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 15%
84-85°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 41%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 15%
84-85°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$490 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$549 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$24 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$725 Vol.
41%
82-83°F
$200 Vol.
29%
84-85°F
$212 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$293 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$354 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$111 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$153 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$158 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 84°F for Chicago on August 15 amid showers and southeasterly flow, yet trader consensus centers on 80–83°F as the most probable range due to persistent cloud cover and precipitation that limits daytime heating. A mid-August cold front and associated moisture from a recent derecho event across northern Illinois continue to moderate temperatures below seasonal normals of 82–83°F, while model consensus shows limited intensification potential without clearer skies. Upcoming NWS updates and afternoon observations will refine these atmospheric conditions, with any reduction in cloud thickness or delayed rain timing potentially shifting odds toward the upper end of the 80–85°F band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,269End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 84°F for Chicago on August 15 amid showers and southeasterly flow, yet trader consensus centers on 80–83°F as the most probable range due to persistent cloud cover and precipitation that limits daytime heating. A mid-August cold front and associated moisture from a recent derecho event across northern Illinois continue to moderate temperatures below seasonal normals of 82–83°F, while model consensus shows limited intensification potential without clearer skies. Upcoming NWS updates and afternoon observations will refine these atmospheric conditions, with any reduction in cloud thickness or delayed rain timing potentially shifting odds toward the upper end of the 80–85°F band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,269End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 84°F for Chicago on August 15 amid showers and southeasterly flow, yet trader consensus centers on 80–83°F as the most probable range due to persistent cloud cover and precipitation that limits daytime heating. A mid-August cold front and associated moisture from a recent derecho event across northern Illinois continue to moderate temperatures below seasonal normals of 82–83°F, while model consensus shows limited intensification potential without clearer skies. Upcoming NWS updates and afternoon observations will refine these atmospheric conditions, with any reduction in cloud thickness or delayed rain timing potentially shifting odds toward the upper end of the 80–85°F band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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