Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 16 maximum will center near 25°C, driven by moderate high-pressure ridging that allows daytime solar heating while light westerly flow and increasing mid-level moisture introduce variable cloud cover. This setup yields implied probabilities tightly clustered between 24–26°C, reflecting typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing that can suppress or enhance the peak by 1–2°C. Historical mid-August averages of 22–24°C provide context, with current guidance running slightly above climatology amid a brief warming pulse before seasonal cooling resumes. Traders weigh the narrow spread against potential late adjustments in model consensus ahead of official station verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 16?
25°C 36%
26°C 29%
24°C 17%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
4%
23°C
13%
24°C
17%
25°C
36%
26°C
29%
27°C
5%
28°C
6%
29°C
6%
30°C or higher
4%
25°C 36%
26°C 29%
24°C 17%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
3%
21°C
$13 Vol.
3%
22°C
$13 Vol.
4%
23°C
$31 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
36%
26°C
$6 Vol.
29%
27°C
$5 Vol.
5%
28°C
$36 Vol.
6%
29°C
$25 Vol.
6%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 16 maximum will center near 25°C, driven by moderate high-pressure ridging that allows daytime solar heating while light westerly flow and increasing mid-level moisture introduce variable cloud cover. This setup yields implied probabilities tightly clustered between 24–26°C, reflecting typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing that can suppress or enhance the peak by 1–2°C. Historical mid-August averages of 22–24°C provide context, with current guidance running slightly above climatology amid a brief warming pulse before seasonal cooling resumes. Traders weigh the narrow spread against potential late adjustments in model consensus ahead of official station verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$159End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 16 maximum will center near 25°C, driven by moderate high-pressure ridging that allows daytime solar heating while light westerly flow and increasing mid-level moisture introduce variable cloud cover. This setup yields implied probabilities tightly clustered between 24–26°C, reflecting typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing that can suppress or enhance the peak by 1–2°C. Historical mid-August averages of 22–24°C provide context, with current guidance running slightly above climatology amid a brief warming pulse before seasonal cooling resumes. Traders weigh the narrow spread against potential late adjustments in model consensus ahead of official station verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$159End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 16 maximum will center near 25°C, driven by moderate high-pressure ridging that allows daytime solar heating while light westerly flow and increasing mid-level moisture introduce variable cloud cover. This setup yields implied probabilities tightly clustered between 24–26°C, reflecting typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing that can suppress or enhance the peak by 1–2°C. Historical mid-August averages of 22–24°C provide context, with current guidance running slightly above climatology amid a brief warming pulse before seasonal cooling resumes. Traders weigh the narrow spread against potential late adjustments in model consensus ahead of official station verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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