Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project a daytime maximum near 26–27°C in Istanbul on August 14 under stable high pressure, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies with low humidity. This consensus, updated within the past 48 hours, drives the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C while keeping 25°C and 27°C as viable alternatives given typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C. Seasonal baselines place August averages around 27–28°C, yet the near-term pattern shows no heat-wave amplification or cloud-cover reduction that would push readings higher. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official station data from Istanbul Airport for any last-minute adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
26°C 54%
25°C 18%
27°C 16%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
18%
26°C
54%
27°C
16%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 54%
25°C 18%
27°C 16%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
$12 Vol.
2%
24°C
$22 Vol.
5%
25°C
$12 Vol.
18%
26°C
$58 Vol.
54%
27°C
$188 Vol.
16%
28°C
$1 Vol.
6%
29°C
$10 Vol.
3%
30°C
$33 Vol.
1%
31°C
$17 Vol.
4%
32°C
$5 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project a daytime maximum near 26–27°C in Istanbul on August 14 under stable high pressure, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies with low humidity. This consensus, updated within the past 48 hours, drives the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C while keeping 25°C and 27°C as viable alternatives given typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C. Seasonal baselines place August averages around 27–28°C, yet the near-term pattern shows no heat-wave amplification or cloud-cover reduction that would push readings higher. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official station data from Istanbul Airport for any last-minute adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$388End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project a daytime maximum near 26–27°C in Istanbul on August 14 under stable high pressure, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies with low humidity. This consensus, updated within the past 48 hours, drives the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C while keeping 25°C and 27°C as viable alternatives given typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C. Seasonal baselines place August averages around 27–28°C, yet the near-term pattern shows no heat-wave amplification or cloud-cover reduction that would push readings higher. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official station data from Istanbul Airport for any last-minute adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$388End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project a daytime maximum near 26–27°C in Istanbul on August 14 under stable high pressure, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies with low humidity. This consensus, updated within the past 48 hours, drives the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C while keeping 25°C and 27°C as viable alternatives given typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C. Seasonal baselines place August averages around 27–28°C, yet the near-term pattern shows no heat-wave amplification or cloud-cover reduction that would push readings higher. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official station data from Istanbul Airport for any last-minute adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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