Latest Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a peak of 32–33 °C in London on 14 August, driven by persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow that has sustained the current heatwave. Minor variations in forecast highs hinge on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud development, and the precise timing of any weakening in the ridge; these factors create the narrow spread between 31 °C and 34 °C outcomes. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent operational runs from the Met Office and ECMWF, which show limited scope for either significant cooling or further intensification before Friday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 14?
Highest temperature in London on August 14?
33°C 33%
32°C 30%
31°C 17%
34°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
17%
32°C
30%
33°C
33%
34°C
15%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 33%
32°C 30%
31°C 17%
34°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
29°C or below
$360 Vol.
2%
30°C
$254 Vol.
6%
31°C
$244 Vol.
17%
32°C
$690 Vol.
30%
33°C
$340 Vol.
33%
34°C
$342 Vol.
15%
35°C
$737 Vol.
4%
36°C
$187 Vol.
1%
37°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$210 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a peak of 32–33 °C in London on 14 August, driven by persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow that has sustained the current heatwave. Minor variations in forecast highs hinge on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud development, and the precise timing of any weakening in the ridge; these factors create the narrow spread between 31 °C and 34 °C outcomes. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent operational runs from the Met Office and ECMWF, which show limited scope for either significant cooling or further intensification before Friday.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,873End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a peak of 32–33 °C in London on 14 August, driven by persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow that has sustained the current heatwave. Minor variations in forecast highs hinge on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud development, and the precise timing of any weakening in the ridge; these factors create the narrow spread between 31 °C and 34 °C outcomes. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent operational runs from the Met Office and ECMWF, which show limited scope for either significant cooling or further intensification before Friday.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,873End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a peak of 32–33 °C in London on 14 August, driven by persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow that has sustained the current heatwave. Minor variations in forecast highs hinge on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud development, and the precise timing of any weakening in the ridge; these factors create the narrow spread between 31 °C and 34 °C outcomes. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent operational runs from the Met Office and ECMWF, which show limited scope for either significant cooling or further intensification before Friday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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