Recent forecast model runs from European meteorological centers indicate a stable warm air mass over central Poland through mid-August, supporting trader consensus around 26–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 14. Ensemble guidance shows modest diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, keeping values near seasonal normals rather than extreme. Small spreads between leading outcomes reflect typical short-range model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local cloud timing, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution simulations and observational data from the coming 48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
26°C 41%
27°C 34%
28°C 12%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
8%
26°C
41%
27°C
34%
28°C
12%
29°C
6%
30°C or higher
4%
26°C 41%
27°C 34%
28°C 12%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$1,716 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$551 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$174 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$242 Vol.
2%
24°C
$49 Vol.
6%
25°C
$102 Vol.
8%
26°C
$65 Vol.
41%
27°C
$38 Vol.
34%
28°C
$17 Vol.
12%
29°C
$36 Vol.
6%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European meteorological centers indicate a stable warm air mass over central Poland through mid-August, supporting trader consensus around 26–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 14. Ensemble guidance shows modest diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, keeping values near seasonal normals rather than extreme. Small spreads between leading outcomes reflect typical short-range model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local cloud timing, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution simulations and observational data from the coming 48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,999End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European meteorological centers indicate a stable warm air mass over central Poland through mid-August, supporting trader consensus around 26–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 14. Ensemble guidance shows modest diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, keeping values near seasonal normals rather than extreme. Small spreads between leading outcomes reflect typical short-range model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local cloud timing, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution simulations and observational data from the coming 48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,999End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from European meteorological centers indicate a stable warm air mass over central Poland through mid-August, supporting trader consensus around 26–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 14. Ensemble guidance shows modest diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, keeping values near seasonal normals rather than extreme. Small spreads between leading outcomes reflect typical short-range model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local cloud timing, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution simulations and observational data from the coming 48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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