Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF position Shanghai's August 14 overnight low near 26–27°C, reflecting the dominance of warm, humid subtropical air masses with limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where average lows hover around 25–27°C absent major cold advection or typhoon-induced shifts. Current observations show no rapid cooling trend through mid-month, supporting the market's heavy weighting on 26°C (42%) and 27°C (31%) outcomes while leaving room for minor downward revisions if clearer skies develop. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?
26°C 42%
27°C 31%
25°C 11%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
11%
26°C
42%
27°C
31%
28°C
9%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 42%
27°C 31%
25°C 11%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$45 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$25 Vol.
1%
23°C
$31 Vol.
5%
24°C
$25 Vol.
5%
25°C
$20 Vol.
11%
26°C
$46 Vol.
42%
27°C
$20 Vol.
31%
28°C
$50 Vol.
9%
29°C
$63 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$53 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF position Shanghai's August 14 overnight low near 26–27°C, reflecting the dominance of warm, humid subtropical air masses with limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where average lows hover around 25–27°C absent major cold advection or typhoon-induced shifts. Current observations show no rapid cooling trend through mid-month, supporting the market's heavy weighting on 26°C (42%) and 27°C (31%) outcomes while leaving room for minor downward revisions if clearer skies develop. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$413End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF position Shanghai's August 14 overnight low near 26–27°C, reflecting the dominance of warm, humid subtropical air masses with limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where average lows hover around 25–27°C absent major cold advection or typhoon-induced shifts. Current observations show no rapid cooling trend through mid-month, supporting the market's heavy weighting on 26°C (42%) and 27°C (31%) outcomes while leaving room for minor downward revisions if clearer skies develop. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$413End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF position Shanghai's August 14 overnight low near 26–27°C, reflecting the dominance of warm, humid subtropical air masses with limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where average lows hover around 25–27°C absent major cold advection or typhoon-induced shifts. Current observations show no rapid cooling trend through mid-month, supporting the market's heavy weighting on 26°C (42%) and 27°C (31%) outcomes while leaving room for minor downward revisions if clearer skies develop. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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