Recent forecasts from meteorological models show Shanghai under persistent overcast skies and light rain through August 12, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 26–27°C. High humidity and cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon pattern reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows elevated relative to clearer summer nights. Official observations and ensemble guidance indicate only modest variation possible from timing of showers or slight wind shifts, aligning with the market’s near-even split between the two leading outcomes. Historical August minima average around 25°C, but current conditions favor the warmer end of the distribution. Updated model runs and real-time station data in the next 48 hours will clarify any adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
27°C 41%
26°C 40%
28°C 9%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
8%
26°C
40%
27°C
41%
28°C
9%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 41%
26°C 40%
28°C 9%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
$52 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$18 Vol.
3%
24°C
$56 Vol.
6%
25°C
$40 Vol.
8%
26°C
$354 Vol.
40%
27°C
$93 Vol.
41%
28°C
$36 Vol.
9%
29°C
$37 Vol.
3%
30°C
$38 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$42 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models show Shanghai under persistent overcast skies and light rain through August 12, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 26–27°C. High humidity and cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon pattern reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows elevated relative to clearer summer nights. Official observations and ensemble guidance indicate only modest variation possible from timing of showers or slight wind shifts, aligning with the market’s near-even split between the two leading outcomes. Historical August minima average around 25°C, but current conditions favor the warmer end of the distribution. Updated model runs and real-time station data in the next 48 hours will clarify any adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$809End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models show Shanghai under persistent overcast skies and light rain through August 12, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 26–27°C. High humidity and cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon pattern reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows elevated relative to clearer summer nights. Official observations and ensemble guidance indicate only modest variation possible from timing of showers or slight wind shifts, aligning with the market’s near-even split between the two leading outcomes. Historical August minima average around 25°C, but current conditions favor the warmer end of the distribution. Updated model runs and real-time station data in the next 48 hours will clarify any adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$809End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models show Shanghai under persistent overcast skies and light rain through August 12, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 26–27°C. High humidity and cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon pattern reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows elevated relative to clearer summer nights. Official observations and ensemble guidance indicate only modest variation possible from timing of showers or slight wind shifts, aligning with the market’s near-even split between the two leading outcomes. Historical August minima average around 25°C, but current conditions favor the warmer end of the distribution. Updated model runs and real-time station data in the next 48 hours will clarify any adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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