Current ensemble forecasts from global models show a tight spread around 32–34°C for Beijing’s peak on August 10, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high that governs regional heat buildup. Daytime solar heating under mostly clear skies, combined with light southerly flow and urban heat-island effects, supports the market’s clustering near 33°C (31.5 %) and 34°C (26.5 %), while slight differences in low-level moisture advection or boundary-layer mixing could shift outcomes to 32°C or 35°C. With only two days remaining, traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for any adjustment in 850-hPa temperatures or cloud cover that would narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 10?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?
33°C 32%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
7%
32°C
21%
33°C
32%
34°C
27%
35°C
12%
36°C
6%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 32%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
28°C or below
$1,715 Vol.
1%
29°C
$132 Vol.
1%
30°C
$110 Vol.
3%
31°C
$86 Vol.
7%
32°C
$114 Vol.
21%
33°C
$141 Vol.
32%
34°C
$176 Vol.
27%
35°C
$239 Vol.
12%
36°C
$344 Vol.
6%
37°C
$82 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$132 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models show a tight spread around 32–34°C for Beijing’s peak on August 10, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high that governs regional heat buildup. Daytime solar heating under mostly clear skies, combined with light southerly flow and urban heat-island effects, supports the market’s clustering near 33°C (31.5 %) and 34°C (26.5 %), while slight differences in low-level moisture advection or boundary-layer mixing could shift outcomes to 32°C or 35°C. With only two days remaining, traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for any adjustment in 850-hPa temperatures or cloud cover that would narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,271End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models show a tight spread around 32–34°C for Beijing’s peak on August 10, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high that governs regional heat buildup. Daytime solar heating under mostly clear skies, combined with light southerly flow and urban heat-island effects, supports the market’s clustering near 33°C (31.5 %) and 34°C (26.5 %), while slight differences in low-level moisture advection or boundary-layer mixing could shift outcomes to 32°C or 35°C. With only two days remaining, traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for any adjustment in 850-hPa temperatures or cloud cover that would narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,271End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models show a tight spread around 32–34°C for Beijing’s peak on August 10, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high that governs regional heat buildup. Daytime solar heating under mostly clear skies, combined with light southerly flow and urban heat-island effects, supports the market’s clustering near 33°C (31.5 %) and 34°C (26.5 %), while slight differences in low-level moisture advection or boundary-layer mixing could shift outcomes to 32°C or 35°C. With only two days remaining, traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for any adjustment in 850-hPa temperatures or cloud cover that would narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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