**Latest short-range ensemble guidance from KNMI and ECMWF places the most likely maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** This follows the early-August heat peak (local highs near 33 °C on 3 August) and subsequent cooling as Atlantic air advected across the North Sea. Current model runs show limited diurnal heating due to persistent cloud and a 15–20 km/h onshore breeze that suppresses peak values relative to inland sites. The narrow spread among the leading market outcomes (22–24 °C accounting for ~86 % of probability) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: minor shifts in the timing of any cloud breaks or slight changes in low-level advection can easily move the daily maximum by ±1 °C. Historical climatology for early August in Amsterdam centers around 21–22 °C, so the current consensus represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the lingering effects of the recent warm spell. Updated model cycles and KNMI nowcasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
23°C 35%
24°C 29%
22°C 22%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
8%
22°C
22%
23°C
35%
24°C
29%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
23°C 35%
24°C 29%
22°C 22%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C
$155 Vol.
3%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C
$91 Vol.
22%
23°C
$40 Vol.
35%
24°C
$1 Vol.
29%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$35 Vol.
3%
27°C
$17 Vol.
2%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest short-range ensemble guidance from KNMI and ECMWF places the most likely maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.**
This follows the early-August heat peak (local highs near 33 °C on 3 August) and subsequent cooling as Atlantic air advected across the North Sea. Current model runs show limited diurnal heating due to persistent cloud and a 15–20 km/h onshore breeze that suppresses peak values relative to inland sites. The narrow spread among the leading market outcomes (22–24 °C accounting for ~86 % of probability) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: minor shifts in the timing of any cloud breaks or slight changes in low-level advection can easily move the daily maximum by ±1 °C. Historical climatology for early August in Amsterdam centers around 21–22 °C, so the current consensus represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the lingering effects of the recent warm spell. Updated model cycles and KNMI nowcasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$360End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest short-range ensemble guidance from KNMI and ECMWF places the most likely maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.**
This follows the early-August heat peak (local highs near 33 °C on 3 August) and subsequent cooling as Atlantic air advected across the North Sea. Current model runs show limited diurnal heating due to persistent cloud and a 15–20 km/h onshore breeze that suppresses peak values relative to inland sites. The narrow spread among the leading market outcomes (22–24 °C accounting for ~86 % of probability) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: minor shifts in the timing of any cloud breaks or slight changes in low-level advection can easily move the daily maximum by ±1 °C. Historical climatology for early August in Amsterdam centers around 21–22 °C, so the current consensus represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the lingering effects of the recent warm spell. Updated model cycles and KNMI nowcasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$360End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest short-range ensemble guidance from KNMI and ECMWF places the most likely maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** This follows the early-August heat peak (local highs near 33 °C on 3 August) and subsequent cooling as Atlantic air advected across the North Sea. Current model runs show limited diurnal heating due to persistent cloud and a 15–20 km/h onshore breeze that suppresses peak values relative to inland sites. The narrow spread among the leading market outcomes (22–24 °C accounting for ~86 % of probability) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: minor shifts in the timing of any cloud breaks or slight changes in low-level advection can easily move the daily maximum by ±1 °C. Historical climatology for early August in Amsterdam centers around 21–22 °C, so the current consensus represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the lingering effects of the recent warm spell. Updated model cycles and KNMI nowcasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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