Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international guidance indicate a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 8, consistent with typical mid-winter maxima of 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions across the lower North Island, with no strong signals for anomalous warmth or cooling from large-scale drivers such as ENSO. Recent runs show light northerlies and possible showers moderating daytime peaks, while historical data place daily extremes rarely exceeding 15°C or falling below 10°C in early August. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 13°C and 14°C outcomes as the latest model consensus narrows the likely range ahead of final observational resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 8?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?
13°C 51%
14°C 38%
12°C 8%
15°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
8%
13°C
51%
14°C
38%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
2%
13°C 51%
14°C 38%
12°C 8%
15°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
7°C or below
$486 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$496 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$496 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$47 Vol.
1%
11°C
$35 Vol.
2%
12°C
$86 Vol.
8%
13°C
$154 Vol.
51%
14°C
$319 Vol.
38%
15°C
$61 Vol.
6%
16°C
$11 Vol.
3%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international guidance indicate a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 8, consistent with typical mid-winter maxima of 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions across the lower North Island, with no strong signals for anomalous warmth or cooling from large-scale drivers such as ENSO. Recent runs show light northerlies and possible showers moderating daytime peaks, while historical data place daily extremes rarely exceeding 15°C or falling below 10°C in early August. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 13°C and 14°C outcomes as the latest model consensus narrows the likely range ahead of final observational resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,198End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international guidance indicate a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 8, consistent with typical mid-winter maxima of 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions across the lower North Island, with no strong signals for anomalous warmth or cooling from large-scale drivers such as ENSO. Recent runs show light northerlies and possible showers moderating daytime peaks, while historical data place daily extremes rarely exceeding 15°C or falling below 10°C in early August. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 13°C and 14°C outcomes as the latest model consensus narrows the likely range ahead of final observational resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,198End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international guidance indicate a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 8, consistent with typical mid-winter maxima of 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions across the lower North Island, with no strong signals for anomalous warmth or cooling from large-scale drivers such as ENSO. Recent runs show light northerlies and possible showers moderating daytime peaks, while historical data place daily extremes rarely exceeding 15°C or falling below 10°C in early August. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 13°C and 14°C outcomes as the latest model consensus narrows the likely range ahead of final observational resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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