National Weather Service forecasts project Seattle highs in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 5 under sunny conditions, light northeast flow, and patchy smoke from regional wildfires, with marine air moderating peaks near the coast. This aligns with the market's emphasis on 86-87°F as the leading outcome at 38.5% implied probability, ahead of 84-85°F, as short-term model runs show limited additional warming from the offshore ridge before a thermal trough weakens later in the week. Above-normal summer guidance from NOAA supports the upside skew relative to the early-August climatological average near 79°F, though ensemble spread keeps lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens sooner than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on August 5?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?
86-87°F 39%
88-89°F 23%
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 8.3%
NEW
$34,471 Vol.
NEW
$34,471 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 39%
88-89°F 23%
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 8.3%
NEW
$34,471 Vol.
NEW
$34,471 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
79°F or below
$6,894 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$9,687 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$3,550 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$1,726 Vol.
23%
86-87°F
$2,412 Vol.
39%
88-89°F
$5,024 Vol.
23%
90-91°F
$2,276 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$928 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$399 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$895 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$682 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts project Seattle highs in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 5 under sunny conditions, light northeast flow, and patchy smoke from regional wildfires, with marine air moderating peaks near the coast. This aligns with the market's emphasis on 86-87°F as the leading outcome at 38.5% implied probability, ahead of 84-85°F, as short-term model runs show limited additional warming from the offshore ridge before a thermal trough weakens later in the week. Above-normal summer guidance from NOAA supports the upside skew relative to the early-August climatological average near 79°F, though ensemble spread keeps lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens sooner than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$34,471End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts project Seattle highs in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 5 under sunny conditions, light northeast flow, and patchy smoke from regional wildfires, with marine air moderating peaks near the coast. This aligns with the market's emphasis on 86-87°F as the leading outcome at 38.5% implied probability, ahead of 84-85°F, as short-term model runs show limited additional warming from the offshore ridge before a thermal trough weakens later in the week. Above-normal summer guidance from NOAA supports the upside skew relative to the early-August climatological average near 79°F, though ensemble spread keeps lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens sooner than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,471End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts project Seattle highs in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 5 under sunny conditions, light northeast flow, and patchy smoke from regional wildfires, with marine air moderating peaks near the coast. This aligns with the market's emphasis on 86-87°F as the leading outcome at 38.5% implied probability, ahead of 84-85°F, as short-term model runs show limited additional warming from the offshore ridge before a thermal trough weakens later in the week. Above-normal summer guidance from NOAA supports the upside skew relative to the early-August climatological average near 79°F, though ensemble spread keeps lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens sooner than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions