Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble forecasts for New York City on August 5 center afternoon highs near 80–83°F, with the spread across model runs and limited afternoon mixing under modest onshore flow driving the tight clustering around the 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes. Sea-breeze influences from the Atlantic and variable boundary-layer moisture introduce the main uncertainty, preventing stronger consensus on whether peaks reach the upper end of that range or stay capped by coastal cooling. Historical August normals near 83°F at Central Park provide context, but the near-term model disagreement on diurnal heating and any residual cloud cover keeps lower-probability bins like 84–85°F viable only if mixing strengthens more than currently indicated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 5?
82-83°F 42%
80-81°F 34%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 5%
NEW
$12,996 Vol.
NEW
$12,996 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
42%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 42%
80-81°F 34%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 5%
NEW
$12,996 Vol.
NEW
$12,996 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
71°F or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$265 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$563 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$967 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$898 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$1,312 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$5,426 Vol.
42%
84-85°F
$1,233 Vol.
20%
86-87°F
$1,072 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$561 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$574 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble forecasts for New York City on August 5 center afternoon highs near 80–83°F, with the spread across model runs and limited afternoon mixing under modest onshore flow driving the tight clustering around the 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes. Sea-breeze influences from the Atlantic and variable boundary-layer moisture introduce the main uncertainty, preventing stronger consensus on whether peaks reach the upper end of that range or stay capped by coastal cooling. Historical August normals near 83°F at Central Park provide context, but the near-term model disagreement on diurnal heating and any residual cloud cover keeps lower-probability bins like 84–85°F viable only if mixing strengthens more than currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$12,996End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble forecasts for New York City on August 5 center afternoon highs near 80–83°F, with the spread across model runs and limited afternoon mixing under modest onshore flow driving the tight clustering around the 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes. Sea-breeze influences from the Atlantic and variable boundary-layer moisture introduce the main uncertainty, preventing stronger consensus on whether peaks reach the upper end of that range or stay capped by coastal cooling. Historical August normals near 83°F at Central Park provide context, but the near-term model disagreement on diurnal heating and any residual cloud cover keeps lower-probability bins like 84–85°F viable only if mixing strengthens more than currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,996End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble forecasts for New York City on August 5 center afternoon highs near 80–83°F, with the spread across model runs and limited afternoon mixing under modest onshore flow driving the tight clustering around the 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes. Sea-breeze influences from the Atlantic and variable boundary-layer moisture introduce the main uncertainty, preventing stronger consensus on whether peaks reach the upper end of that range or stay capped by coastal cooling. Historical August normals near 83°F at Central Park provide context, but the near-term model disagreement on diurnal heating and any residual cloud cover keeps lower-probability bins like 84–85°F viable only if mixing strengthens more than currently indicated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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