Ongoing heat wave conditions across the Korean Peninsula, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge and southerly flow of warm, humid air from the Pacific, underpin trader positioning around 34–36°C for Incheon’s August 4 maximum. Korea Meteorological Administration advisories and recent model runs from global ensembles show limited cloud cover and weak winds that favor strong daytime heating, with historical August climatology placing peak values near 32–34°C. Slight model spread in the timing of any weak frontal boundary or diurnal convection accounts for the closely matched probabilities across the leading outcomes, as even modest increases in humidity or brief cloudiness could cap the high at 34°C while clearer conditions push it toward 36°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected within 24 hours will likely refine these edges ahead of resolution.