Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) recently highlighted drier southwest monsoon conditions for the first half of August 2026, with daily maxima most likely reaching 33–34°C amid reduced rainfall and occasional windy periods. This aligns with broader seasonal signals from a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically suppress convection and elevate temperatures above the long-term August average of around 31°C. Recent observations, including a 33.6°C peak on August 2, reinforce the warm trend, though tropical variability in cloud cover and localized showers can moderate exact daily highs. Market-implied probabilities center on 32–33°C as the consensus range, reflecting traders weighing official guidance against short-term forecast model spread ahead of NEA's daily updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Singapore on August 4?
Highest temperature in Singapore on August 4?
32°C 49%
33°C 38%
31°C 8%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
8%
32°C
49%
33°C
38%
34°C
5%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 49%
33°C 38%
31°C 8%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
27°C or below
$159 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$160 Vol.
1%
29°C
$134 Vol.
2%
30°C
$104 Vol.
2%
31°C
$167 Vol.
8%
32°C
$312 Vol.
49%
33°C
$2,808 Vol.
38%
34°C
$161 Vol.
5%
35°C
$112 Vol.
1%
36°C
$134 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) recently highlighted drier southwest monsoon conditions for the first half of August 2026, with daily maxima most likely reaching 33–34°C amid reduced rainfall and occasional windy periods. This aligns with broader seasonal signals from a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically suppress convection and elevate temperatures above the long-term August average of around 31°C. Recent observations, including a 33.6°C peak on August 2, reinforce the warm trend, though tropical variability in cloud cover and localized showers can moderate exact daily highs. Market-implied probabilities center on 32–33°C as the consensus range, reflecting traders weighing official guidance against short-term forecast model spread ahead of NEA's daily updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,472End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) recently highlighted drier southwest monsoon conditions for the first half of August 2026, with daily maxima most likely reaching 33–34°C amid reduced rainfall and occasional windy periods. This aligns with broader seasonal signals from a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically suppress convection and elevate temperatures above the long-term August average of around 31°C. Recent observations, including a 33.6°C peak on August 2, reinforce the warm trend, though tropical variability in cloud cover and localized showers can moderate exact daily highs. Market-implied probabilities center on 32–33°C as the consensus range, reflecting traders weighing official guidance against short-term forecast model spread ahead of NEA's daily updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,472End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Singapore's National Environment Agency (NEA) recently highlighted drier southwest monsoon conditions for the first half of August 2026, with daily maxima most likely reaching 33–34°C amid reduced rainfall and occasional windy periods. This aligns with broader seasonal signals from a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically suppress convection and elevate temperatures above the long-term August average of around 31°C. Recent observations, including a 33.6°C peak on August 2, reinforce the warm trend, though tropical variability in cloud cover and localized showers can moderate exact daily highs. Market-implied probabilities center on 32–33°C as the consensus range, reflecting traders weighing official guidance against short-term forecast model spread ahead of NEA's daily updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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