Current forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 5, aligning with trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins amid tight spreads. Key differentiators include the strength of any approaching weak frontal boundary, dewpoint levels near 65–70°F that limit radiative cooling, and variable cloud cover reducing clear-sky heat loss. NOAA model runs show modest spread in minimum temperatures due to urban heat-island effects at LaGuardia versus Central Park stations, while recent Northeast warmth has kept baselines elevated. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine wind and humidity projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 5?
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 28%
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
4%
76°F or higher
2%
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 28%
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
57°F or below
$37 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$37 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$37 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$18 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$171 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$22 Vol.
13%
68-69°F
$63 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$16 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$1,266 Vol.
4%
76°F or higher
$151 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 5, aligning with trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins amid tight spreads. Key differentiators include the strength of any approaching weak frontal boundary, dewpoint levels near 65–70°F that limit radiative cooling, and variable cloud cover reducing clear-sky heat loss. NOAA model runs show modest spread in minimum temperatures due to urban heat-island effects at LaGuardia versus Central Park stations, while recent Northeast warmth has kept baselines elevated. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine wind and humidity projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,837End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 5, aligning with trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins amid tight spreads. Key differentiators include the strength of any approaching weak frontal boundary, dewpoint levels near 65–70°F that limit radiative cooling, and variable cloud cover reducing clear-sky heat loss. NOAA model runs show modest spread in minimum temperatures due to urban heat-island effects at LaGuardia versus Central Park stations, while recent Northeast warmth has kept baselines elevated. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine wind and humidity projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,837End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City on August 5, aligning with trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins amid tight spreads. Key differentiators include the strength of any approaching weak frontal boundary, dewpoint levels near 65–70°F that limit radiative cooling, and variable cloud cover reducing clear-sky heat loss. NOAA model runs show modest spread in minimum temperatures due to urban heat-island effects at LaGuardia versus Central Park stations, while recent Northeast warmth has kept baselines elevated. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine wind and humidity projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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