Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 4 show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo with a predicted daily high near 28–29°C, a few degrees below the early-August normal of 31.8°C, due to increased cloud cover and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance from multiple sources aligns on this range, with limited spread because steering patterns and moisture remain stable through the short-term window. The close market-implied odds between 28°C and 29°C reflect remaining uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing versus persistent cloud decks, which can shift the peak by 1–2°C, along with local measurement nuances at the primary observing station. No strong high-pressure ridge or typhoon influence is expected to push values toward 30°C or above in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
28°C 31%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
20%
28°C
31%
29°C
29%
30°C
13%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 31%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
$419 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$409 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$499 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$20 Vol.
2%
26°C
$36 Vol.
6%
27°C
$160 Vol.
20%
28°C
$252 Vol.
31%
29°C
$24 Vol.
29%
30°C
$223 Vol.
13%
31°C
$482 Vol.
4%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 4 show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo with a predicted daily high near 28–29°C, a few degrees below the early-August normal of 31.8°C, due to increased cloud cover and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance from multiple sources aligns on this range, with limited spread because steering patterns and moisture remain stable through the short-term window. The close market-implied odds between 28°C and 29°C reflect remaining uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing versus persistent cloud decks, which can shift the peak by 1–2°C, along with local measurement nuances at the primary observing station. No strong high-pressure ridge or typhoon influence is expected to push values toward 30°C or above in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,534End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 4 show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo with a predicted daily high near 28–29°C, a few degrees below the early-August normal of 31.8°C, due to increased cloud cover and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance from multiple sources aligns on this range, with limited spread because steering patterns and moisture remain stable through the short-term window. The close market-implied odds between 28°C and 29°C reflect remaining uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing versus persistent cloud decks, which can shift the peak by 1–2°C, along with local measurement nuances at the primary observing station. No strong high-pressure ridge or typhoon influence is expected to push values toward 30°C or above in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,534End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 4 show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo with a predicted daily high near 28–29°C, a few degrees below the early-August normal of 31.8°C, due to increased cloud cover and a modest chance of showers that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model guidance from multiple sources aligns on this range, with limited spread because steering patterns and moisture remain stable through the short-term window. The close market-implied odds between 28°C and 29°C reflect remaining uncertainty in the precise timing of any clearing versus persistent cloud decks, which can shift the peak by 1–2°C, along with local measurement nuances at the primary observing station. No strong high-pressure ridge or typhoon influence is expected to push values toward 30°C or above in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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