The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$112,874 Vol.
$112,874 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$112,874 Vol.
$112,874 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
21°C or below
$402 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,341 Vol.
No
23°C
$871 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,464 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,887 Vol.
No
26°C
$59,266 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$11,377 Vol.
No
28°C
$19,810 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,244 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,667 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$1,545 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$112,874End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$112,874End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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