Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate minimum temperatures on September 24 will likely range from 26–27°C under persistent northeast monsoon flow and moderate easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 27°C outcome at 45.5% implied probability. Dry, stable conditions with limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, while daytime highs near 31°C maintain elevated baseline temperatures. Seasonal context of normal-to-above-normal September warmth amid developing El Niño conditions further reduces odds of significant drops to 21°C or below. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in monsoon strength or tropical cyclone tracks east of the Philippines represent the main variables that could adjust these trader-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 24?
27°C 59%
21°C or below 42%
31°C or higher 42%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
42%
22°C
20%
23°C
40%
24°C
14%
25°C
21%
26°C
24%
27°C
47%
28°C
15%
29°C
36%
30°C
37%
31°C or higher
42%
27°C 59%
21°C or below 42%
31°C or higher 42%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
42%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$8 Vol.
14%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$93 Vol.
47%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
36%
30°C
$0 Vol.
37%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate minimum temperatures on September 24 will likely range from 26–27°C under persistent northeast monsoon flow and moderate easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 27°C outcome at 45.5% implied probability. Dry, stable conditions with limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, while daytime highs near 31°C maintain elevated baseline temperatures. Seasonal context of normal-to-above-normal September warmth amid developing El Niño conditions further reduces odds of significant drops to 21°C or below. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in monsoon strength or tropical cyclone tracks east of the Philippines represent the main variables that could adjust these trader-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$67End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate minimum temperatures on September 24 will likely range from 26–27°C under persistent northeast monsoon flow and moderate easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 27°C outcome at 45.5% implied probability. Dry, stable conditions with limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, while daytime highs near 31°C maintain elevated baseline temperatures. Seasonal context of normal-to-above-normal September warmth amid developing El Niño conditions further reduces odds of significant drops to 21°C or below. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in monsoon strength or tropical cyclone tracks east of the Philippines represent the main variables that could adjust these trader-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate minimum temperatures on September 24 will likely range from 26–27°C under persistent northeast monsoon flow and moderate easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 27°C outcome at 45.5% implied probability. Dry, stable conditions with limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, while daytime highs near 31°C maintain elevated baseline temperatures. Seasonal context of normal-to-above-normal September warmth amid developing El Niño conditions further reduces odds of significant drops to 21°C or below. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in monsoon strength or tropical cyclone tracks east of the Philippines represent the main variables that could adjust these trader-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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