Current National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco point to a sunny Monday high near 76°F under moderate onshore flow, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F bin. Persistent marine-layer influence and afternoon sea breezes typically cap coastal maxima in the mid-70s even during regional warming trends, while any weakening of the onshore gradient could allow slightly higher readings. Model consensus shows limited spread for this 24-hour period, yet subtle shifts in wind speed or fog timing introduce the observed probability distribution across the 74-81°F range. Historical August averages near 68-70°F provide context for the elevated but still moderated outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 3?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 3?
76-77°F 35%
78-79°F 22%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 35%
78-79°F 22%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
69°F or below
$31 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$109 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$21 Vol.
8%
74-75°F
$55 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$1,818 Vol.
35%
78-79°F
$89 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$44 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$21 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$115 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$30 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco point to a sunny Monday high near 76°F under moderate onshore flow, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F bin. Persistent marine-layer influence and afternoon sea breezes typically cap coastal maxima in the mid-70s even during regional warming trends, while any weakening of the onshore gradient could allow slightly higher readings. Model consensus shows limited spread for this 24-hour period, yet subtle shifts in wind speed or fog timing introduce the observed probability distribution across the 74-81°F range. Historical August averages near 68-70°F provide context for the elevated but still moderated outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$2,555End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco point to a sunny Monday high near 76°F under moderate onshore flow, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F bin. Persistent marine-layer influence and afternoon sea breezes typically cap coastal maxima in the mid-70s even during regional warming trends, while any weakening of the onshore gradient could allow slightly higher readings. Model consensus shows limited spread for this 24-hour period, yet subtle shifts in wind speed or fog timing introduce the observed probability distribution across the 74-81°F range. Historical August averages near 68-70°F provide context for the elevated but still moderated outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,555End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco point to a sunny Monday high near 76°F under moderate onshore flow, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F bin. Persistent marine-layer influence and afternoon sea breezes typically cap coastal maxima in the mid-70s even during regional warming trends, while any weakening of the onshore gradient could allow slightly higher readings. Model consensus shows limited spread for this 24-hour period, yet subtle shifts in wind speed or fog timing introduce the observed probability distribution across the 74-81°F range. Historical August averages near 68-70°F provide context for the elevated but still moderated outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions