Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
30°C 33%
31°C 33%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
33%
31°C
33%
32°C
22%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
30°C 33%
31°C 33%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$217 Vol.
3%
29°C
$102 Vol.
7%
30°C
$45 Vol.
33%
31°C
$272 Vol.
33%
32°C
$135 Vol.
22%
33°C
$276 Vol.
9%
34°C
$55 Vol.
4%
35°C
$380 Vol.
2%
36°C
$600 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$74 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,161End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,161End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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