Recent meteorological forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate daytime highs for Istanbul on August 5, 2026, near 31–32°C under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of the region's Mediterranean summer climate, with low precipitation risk and ample solar radiation driving peak temperatures in the afternoon. These align with the market's clustering of implied probability around 28–30°C, reflecting model consensus on moderate warming without anomalous heat advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical August baselines average 27–28°C highs, but 2026 early-month data show slight positive anomalies, supporting the elevated odds for 29°C as the mode while capping upside potential above 31°C absent unexpected synoptic shifts. Updated NWP runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
29°C 37%
28°C 26%
30°C 25%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
8%
27°C
11%
28°C
26%
29°C
37%
30°C
25%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 37%
28°C 26%
30°C 25%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C
$100 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
11%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$142 Vol.
37%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$22 Vol.
3%
32°C
$10 Vol.
4%
33°C
$10 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate daytime highs for Istanbul on August 5, 2026, near 31–32°C under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of the region's Mediterranean summer climate, with low precipitation risk and ample solar radiation driving peak temperatures in the afternoon. These align with the market's clustering of implied probability around 28–30°C, reflecting model consensus on moderate warming without anomalous heat advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical August baselines average 27–28°C highs, but 2026 early-month data show slight positive anomalies, supporting the elevated odds for 29°C as the mode while capping upside potential above 31°C absent unexpected synoptic shifts. Updated NWP runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$303End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate daytime highs for Istanbul on August 5, 2026, near 31–32°C under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of the region's Mediterranean summer climate, with low precipitation risk and ample solar radiation driving peak temperatures in the afternoon. These align with the market's clustering of implied probability around 28–30°C, reflecting model consensus on moderate warming without anomalous heat advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical August baselines average 27–28°C highs, but 2026 early-month data show slight positive anomalies, supporting the elevated odds for 29°C as the mode while capping upside potential above 31°C absent unexpected synoptic shifts. Updated NWP runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$303End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate daytime highs for Istanbul on August 5, 2026, near 31–32°C under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of the region's Mediterranean summer climate, with low precipitation risk and ample solar radiation driving peak temperatures in the afternoon. These align with the market's clustering of implied probability around 28–30°C, reflecting model consensus on moderate warming without anomalous heat advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical August baselines average 27–28°C highs, but 2026 early-month data show slight positive anomalies, supporting the elevated odds for 29°C as the mode while capping upside potential above 31°C absent unexpected synoptic shifts. Updated NWP runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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