Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global and regional models indicate peak surface temperatures in Chengdu on August 5 clustered in the 32–35 °C range, driving the tight distribution of market-implied probabilities across 33–35 °C+ outcomes. Subtropical monsoon humidity and soil moisture limit afternoon radiative heating while favoring scattered convection that can cap extremes below 36 °C, consistent with historical August highs averaging 30–34 °C. Light steering winds and urban heat-island effects add modest upward bias, yet model spread remains sensitive to exact timing of any cloud build-up or brief showers. Updated CMA guidance and 48-hour ensemble runs ahead of resolution will likely refine the final distribution as the event window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 5?
35°C or higher 28%
34°C 26%
33°C 22%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C
9%
31°C
11%
32°C
16%
33°C
22%
34°C
26%
35°C or higher
28%
35°C or higher 28%
34°C 26%
33°C 22%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$20 Vol.
3%
29°C
$15 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C
$2 Vol.
11%
32°C
$42 Vol.
16%
33°C
$5 Vol.
22%
34°C
$10 Vol.
26%
35°C or higher
$243 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global and regional models indicate peak surface temperatures in Chengdu on August 5 clustered in the 32–35 °C range, driving the tight distribution of market-implied probabilities across 33–35 °C+ outcomes. Subtropical monsoon humidity and soil moisture limit afternoon radiative heating while favoring scattered convection that can cap extremes below 36 °C, consistent with historical August highs averaging 30–34 °C. Light steering winds and urban heat-island effects add modest upward bias, yet model spread remains sensitive to exact timing of any cloud build-up or brief showers. Updated CMA guidance and 48-hour ensemble runs ahead of resolution will likely refine the final distribution as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global and regional models indicate peak surface temperatures in Chengdu on August 5 clustered in the 32–35 °C range, driving the tight distribution of market-implied probabilities across 33–35 °C+ outcomes. Subtropical monsoon humidity and soil moisture limit afternoon radiative heating while favoring scattered convection that can cap extremes below 36 °C, consistent with historical August highs averaging 30–34 °C. Light steering winds and urban heat-island effects add modest upward bias, yet model spread remains sensitive to exact timing of any cloud build-up or brief showers. Updated CMA guidance and 48-hour ensemble runs ahead of resolution will likely refine the final distribution as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global and regional models indicate peak surface temperatures in Chengdu on August 5 clustered in the 32–35 °C range, driving the tight distribution of market-implied probabilities across 33–35 °C+ outcomes. Subtropical monsoon humidity and soil moisture limit afternoon radiative heating while favoring scattered convection that can cap extremes below 36 °C, consistent with historical August highs averaging 30–34 °C. Light steering winds and urban heat-island effects add modest upward bias, yet model spread remains sensitive to exact timing of any cloud build-up or brief showers. Updated CMA guidance and 48-hour ensemble runs ahead of resolution will likely refine the final distribution as the event window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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