Short-range ensemble forecasts for Cape Town highlight uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an approaching mid-latitude trough, driving market-implied odds toward 16–18°C maxima on August 5. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on whether a cold front arrives early enough to increase cloud cover and strengthen cool southeasterly flow from the Benguela Current, limiting daytime heating, or whether the South Atlantic high maintains clearer skies and allows greater solar insolation under lighter northwesterly winds. With August climatological highs averaging 17°C amid frequent frontal passages, small shifts in model guidance on frontal speed or moisture content can readily tip the daily peak across the 16–19°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on August 5?
18°C 34%
17°C 31%
16°C 25%
19°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
5%
15°C
11%
16°C
25%
17°C
31%
18°C
34%
19°C
12%
20°C
9%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 34%
17°C 31%
16°C 25%
19°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
12°C or below
$49 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
5%
15°C
$39 Vol.
11%
16°C
$74 Vol.
25%
17°C
$61 Vol.
31%
18°C
$84 Vol.
34%
19°C
$79 Vol.
12%
20°C
$43 Vol.
9%
21°C
$45 Vol.
3%
22°C or higher
$899 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts for Cape Town highlight uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an approaching mid-latitude trough, driving market-implied odds toward 16–18°C maxima on August 5. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on whether a cold front arrives early enough to increase cloud cover and strengthen cool southeasterly flow from the Benguela Current, limiting daytime heating, or whether the South Atlantic high maintains clearer skies and allows greater solar insolation under lighter northwesterly winds. With August climatological highs averaging 17°C amid frequent frontal passages, small shifts in model guidance on frontal speed or moisture content can readily tip the daily peak across the 16–19°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,429End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts for Cape Town highlight uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an approaching mid-latitude trough, driving market-implied odds toward 16–18°C maxima on August 5. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on whether a cold front arrives early enough to increase cloud cover and strengthen cool southeasterly flow from the Benguela Current, limiting daytime heating, or whether the South Atlantic high maintains clearer skies and allows greater solar insolation under lighter northwesterly winds. With August climatological highs averaging 17°C amid frequent frontal passages, small shifts in model guidance on frontal speed or moisture content can readily tip the daily peak across the 16–19°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,429End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range ensemble forecasts for Cape Town highlight uncertainty in the timing and intensity of an approaching mid-latitude trough, driving market-implied odds toward 16–18°C maxima on August 5. Differentiation among these outcomes hinges on whether a cold front arrives early enough to increase cloud cover and strengthen cool southeasterly flow from the Benguela Current, limiting daytime heating, or whether the South Atlantic high maintains clearer skies and allows greater solar insolation under lighter northwesterly winds. With August climatological highs averaging 17°C amid frequent frontal passages, small shifts in model guidance on frontal speed or moisture content can readily tip the daily peak across the 16–19°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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