**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 5 high will likely peak near 27–28°C under typical early-August mid-latitude circulation.** This aligns with seasonal baselines of 22–24°C average maxima, adjusted upward by recent warm advection and limited cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official short-range guidance shows a stable high-pressure influence with no major cold fronts or precipitation expected to suppress temperatures in the next 48 hours. Trader consensus around 27°C (40% implied probability) reflects this narrow model spread, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ or 25°C or below capture remaining uncertainty from minor timing shifts in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine these ranges as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 5?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 5?
27°C 40%
26°C 22%
28°C 20%
25°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
15%
26°C
22%
27°C
40%
28°C
20%
29°C
6%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
2%
27°C 40%
26°C 22%
28°C 20%
25°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$23 Vol.
6%
25°C
$77 Vol.
15%
26°C
$9 Vol.
22%
27°C
$79 Vol.
40%
28°C
$45 Vol.
20%
29°C
$46 Vol.
6%
30°C
$26 Vol.
4%
31°C
$21 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 5 high will likely peak near 27–28°C under typical early-August mid-latitude circulation.** This aligns with seasonal baselines of 22–24°C average maxima, adjusted upward by recent warm advection and limited cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official short-range guidance shows a stable high-pressure influence with no major cold fronts or precipitation expected to suppress temperatures in the next 48 hours. Trader consensus around 27°C (40% implied probability) reflects this narrow model spread, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ or 25°C or below capture remaining uncertainty from minor timing shifts in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine these ranges as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$342End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 5 high will likely peak near 27–28°C under typical early-August mid-latitude circulation.** This aligns with seasonal baselines of 22–24°C average maxima, adjusted upward by recent warm advection and limited cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official short-range guidance shows a stable high-pressure influence with no major cold fronts or precipitation expected to suppress temperatures in the next 48 hours. Trader consensus around 27°C (40% implied probability) reflects this narrow model spread, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ or 25°C or below capture remaining uncertainty from minor timing shifts in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine these ranges as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$342End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 5 high will likely peak near 27–28°C under typical early-August mid-latitude circulation.** This aligns with seasonal baselines of 22–24°C average maxima, adjusted upward by recent warm advection and limited cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official short-range guidance shows a stable high-pressure influence with no major cold fronts or precipitation expected to suppress temperatures in the next 48 hours. Trader consensus around 27°C (40% implied probability) reflects this narrow model spread, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ or 25°C or below capture remaining uncertainty from minor timing shifts in steering patterns or localized urban heat effects. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine these ranges as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions