Recent National Weather Service and local forecast models indicate Houston highs near 97°F on August 3, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge and the influence of a summer cold front that began moderating temperatures after an earlier hot spell. Typical August conditions feature afternoon peaks in the mid-90s to low 100s under high humidity and southerly flow, but ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS now favors middle-to-upper 90s with limited afternoon mixing. This aligns with the market's strongest implied probability on the 96-97°F bin, while lower odds on 98-99°F reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing and urban heat island effects. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution data.