Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Munich’s peak temperature on August 5 most likely between 32 °C and 34 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those buckets. A broad ridge of high pressure is promoting subsidence and modest warm-air advection from the southwest, while limited cloud cover and light winds allow strong daytime insolation to push maxima higher than seasonal normals. Model spread remains modest but includes scenarios with slightly stronger northerly flow or increased afternoon convection that could cap readings near 32 °C or allow brief spikes to 34–35 °C. Updated runs from the German Weather Service and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 5?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 5?
33°C 36%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
31°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
10%
32°C
21%
33°C
36%
34°C
27%
35°C
7%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 36%
34°C 27%
32°C 21%
31°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
30°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$143 Vol.
10%
32°C
$151 Vol.
21%
33°C
$173 Vol.
36%
34°C
$131 Vol.
27%
35°C
$290 Vol.
7%
36°C
$172 Vol.
2%
37°C
$351 Vol.
2%
38°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Munich’s peak temperature on August 5 most likely between 32 °C and 34 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those buckets. A broad ridge of high pressure is promoting subsidence and modest warm-air advection from the southwest, while limited cloud cover and light winds allow strong daytime insolation to push maxima higher than seasonal normals. Model spread remains modest but includes scenarios with slightly stronger northerly flow or increased afternoon convection that could cap readings near 32 °C or allow brief spikes to 34–35 °C. Updated runs from the German Weather Service and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,433End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Munich’s peak temperature on August 5 most likely between 32 °C and 34 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those buckets. A broad ridge of high pressure is promoting subsidence and modest warm-air advection from the southwest, while limited cloud cover and light winds allow strong daytime insolation to push maxima higher than seasonal normals. Model spread remains modest but includes scenarios with slightly stronger northerly flow or increased afternoon convection that could cap readings near 32 °C or allow brief spikes to 34–35 °C. Updated runs from the German Weather Service and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,433End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Munich’s peak temperature on August 5 most likely between 32 °C and 34 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those buckets. A broad ridge of high pressure is promoting subsidence and modest warm-air advection from the southwest, while limited cloud cover and light winds allow strong daytime insolation to push maxima higher than seasonal normals. Model spread remains modest but includes scenarios with slightly stronger northerly flow or increased afternoon convection that could cap readings near 32 °C or allow brief spikes to 34–35 °C. Updated runs from the German Weather Service and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will further narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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