Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble consensus point to a building upper-level ridge supporting mostly sunny conditions and light offshore flow over the Puget Sound region on August 4, favoring daily highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This aligns with the market’s leading 86-87°F and 84-85°F bins, reflecting the warmest early-August climatological window when Seattle’s normal high is near 79°F. Longer-range outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continue to favor above-normal temperatures for the month amid persistent ridging patterns, though coastal marine influence and any smoke from regional fires could trim a degree or two. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on August 4?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?
86-87°F 42%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 13%
80-81°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
42%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
1%
94°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 42%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 13%
80-81°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
11%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$3 Vol.
32%
86-87°F
$33 Vol.
42%
88-89°F
$5 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$8 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
1%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble consensus point to a building upper-level ridge supporting mostly sunny conditions and light offshore flow over the Puget Sound region on August 4, favoring daily highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This aligns with the market’s leading 86-87°F and 84-85°F bins, reflecting the warmest early-August climatological window when Seattle’s normal high is near 79°F. Longer-range outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continue to favor above-normal temperatures for the month amid persistent ridging patterns, though coastal marine influence and any smoke from regional fires could trim a degree or two. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$55End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble consensus point to a building upper-level ridge supporting mostly sunny conditions and light offshore flow over the Puget Sound region on August 4, favoring daily highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This aligns with the market’s leading 86-87°F and 84-85°F bins, reflecting the warmest early-August climatological window when Seattle’s normal high is near 79°F. Longer-range outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continue to favor above-normal temperatures for the month amid persistent ridging patterns, though coastal marine influence and any smoke from regional fires could trim a degree or two. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble consensus point to a building upper-level ridge supporting mostly sunny conditions and light offshore flow over the Puget Sound region on August 4, favoring daily highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This aligns with the market’s leading 86-87°F and 84-85°F bins, reflecting the warmest early-August climatological window when Seattle’s normal high is near 79°F. Longer-range outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continue to favor above-normal temperatures for the month amid persistent ridging patterns, though coastal marine influence and any smoke from regional fires could trim a degree or two. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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