Current forecast consensus and climatological data position mid-80s as the leading outcome for Chicago’s August 4 high, with National Weather Service normals at 83.7°F and long-range guidance showing a range of 72–87°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with typical late-summer steering patterns and humidity levels, tends to cap afternoon peaks near seasonal averages unless a stronger warm-air advection event develops. Recent model runs have shown little deviation from these baselines, keeping the 84–85°F bin at the forefront of trader positioning while limiting upside probability for 88°F or higher. Updated National Weather Service briefings and any shifts in regional pressure gradients over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
84-85°F 45%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 21%
88-89°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
45%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
4%
94°F or higher
2%
84-85°F 45%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 21%
88-89°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$3 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$8 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$3 Vol.
27%
84-85°F
$54 Vol.
45%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
21%
88-89°F
$2 Vol.
11%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
4%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus and climatological data position mid-80s as the leading outcome for Chicago’s August 4 high, with National Weather Service normals at 83.7°F and long-range guidance showing a range of 72–87°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with typical late-summer steering patterns and humidity levels, tends to cap afternoon peaks near seasonal averages unless a stronger warm-air advection event develops. Recent model runs have shown little deviation from these baselines, keeping the 84–85°F bin at the forefront of trader positioning while limiting upside probability for 88°F or higher. Updated National Weather Service briefings and any shifts in regional pressure gradients over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus and climatological data position mid-80s as the leading outcome for Chicago’s August 4 high, with National Weather Service normals at 83.7°F and long-range guidance showing a range of 72–87°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with typical late-summer steering patterns and humidity levels, tends to cap afternoon peaks near seasonal averages unless a stronger warm-air advection event develops. Recent model runs have shown little deviation from these baselines, keeping the 84–85°F bin at the forefront of trader positioning while limiting upside probability for 88°F or higher. Updated National Weather Service briefings and any shifts in regional pressure gradients over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus and climatological data position mid-80s as the leading outcome for Chicago’s August 4 high, with National Weather Service normals at 83.7°F and long-range guidance showing a range of 72–87°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with typical late-summer steering patterns and humidity levels, tends to cap afternoon peaks near seasonal averages unless a stronger warm-air advection event develops. Recent model runs have shown little deviation from these baselines, keeping the 84–85°F bin at the forefront of trader positioning while limiting upside probability for 88°F or higher. Updated National Weather Service briefings and any shifts in regional pressure gradients over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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