Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate Houston's August 4 high will likely fall in the mid-90s, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge and moderating Gulf moisture after early-week heat. Typical August climatology features afternoon maxima near 95°F under high humidity, with the National Hurricane Center noting quiet Atlantic conditions that limit steering influences. Model spreads between ECMWF and GFS create the tight market split between 94–95°F and 96–97°F outcomes, as small differences in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 2–3°F. Forecasters expect updated runs and local observations on August 3–4 to refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?
96-97°F 43%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 14%
92-93°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
87°F or below
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
9%
94-95°F
34%
96-97°F
43%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
2%
106°F or higher
1%
96-97°F 43%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 14%
92-93°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$20 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$32 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
9%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
34%
96-97°F
$239 Vol.
43%
98-99°F
$31 Vol.
14%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$32 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$32 Vol.
2%
106°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate Houston's August 4 high will likely fall in the mid-90s, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge and moderating Gulf moisture after early-week heat. Typical August climatology features afternoon maxima near 95°F under high humidity, with the National Hurricane Center noting quiet Atlantic conditions that limit steering influences. Model spreads between ECMWF and GFS create the tight market split between 94–95°F and 96–97°F outcomes, as small differences in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 2–3°F. Forecasters expect updated runs and local observations on August 3–4 to refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$391End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate Houston's August 4 high will likely fall in the mid-90s, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge and moderating Gulf moisture after early-week heat. Typical August climatology features afternoon maxima near 95°F under high humidity, with the National Hurricane Center noting quiet Atlantic conditions that limit steering influences. Model spreads between ECMWF and GFS create the tight market split between 94–95°F and 96–97°F outcomes, as small differences in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 2–3°F. Forecasters expect updated runs and local observations on August 3–4 to refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$391End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate Houston's August 4 high will likely fall in the mid-90s, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge and moderating Gulf moisture after early-week heat. Typical August climatology features afternoon maxima near 95°F under high humidity, with the National Hurricane Center noting quiet Atlantic conditions that limit steering influences. Model spreads between ECMWF and GFS create the tight market split between 94–95°F and 96–97°F outcomes, as small differences in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 2–3°F. Forecasters expect updated runs and local observations on August 3–4 to refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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