Forecast models and official guidance position 26–27°C as the most probable range for Mexico City’s August 4 maximum temperature, aligning with trader consensus at those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, thinner air and frequent afternoon convection during the peak rainy season typically cap daytime highs near the long-term August average of 23–26°C. Recent guidance shows light winds, partial morning sunshine, and scattered showers that limit further warming, consistent with observed highs around 27°C earlier in the month. Updated model runs and observational data through the afternoon of August 3 will refine timing of cloud cover and any localized heating before storms develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 4?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 4?
27°C 42%
26°C 34%
28°C 20%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
34%
27°C
42%
28°C
20%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
27°C 42%
26°C 34%
28°C 20%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
$33 Vol.
1%
21°C
$2 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2 Vol.
1%
23°C
$43 Vol.
1%
24°C
$41 Vol.
2%
25°C
$161 Vol.
7%
26°C
$55 Vol.
34%
27°C
$86 Vol.
42%
28°C
$176 Vol.
20%
29°C
$42 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official guidance position 26–27°C as the most probable range for Mexico City’s August 4 maximum temperature, aligning with trader consensus at those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, thinner air and frequent afternoon convection during the peak rainy season typically cap daytime highs near the long-term August average of 23–26°C. Recent guidance shows light winds, partial morning sunshine, and scattered showers that limit further warming, consistent with observed highs around 27°C earlier in the month. Updated model runs and observational data through the afternoon of August 3 will refine timing of cloud cover and any localized heating before storms develop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$661End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official guidance position 26–27°C as the most probable range for Mexico City’s August 4 maximum temperature, aligning with trader consensus at those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, thinner air and frequent afternoon convection during the peak rainy season typically cap daytime highs near the long-term August average of 23–26°C. Recent guidance shows light winds, partial morning sunshine, and scattered showers that limit further warming, consistent with observed highs around 27°C earlier in the month. Updated model runs and observational data through the afternoon of August 3 will refine timing of cloud cover and any localized heating before storms develop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$661End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models and official guidance position 26–27°C as the most probable range for Mexico City’s August 4 maximum temperature, aligning with trader consensus at those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, thinner air and frequent afternoon convection during the peak rainy season typically cap daytime highs near the long-term August average of 23–26°C. Recent guidance shows light winds, partial morning sunshine, and scattered showers that limit further warming, consistent with observed highs around 27°C earlier in the month. Updated model runs and observational data through the afternoon of August 3 will refine timing of cloud cover and any localized heating before storms develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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