Current numerical weather prediction models from Environment and Climate Change Canada and international ensembles point to a daily high most likely between 27–29°C in Toronto on August 6, driven by warm southerly flow and limited cloud cover under a building ridge. Recent long-range guidance for early August highlights above-average temperatures across southern Ontario through the first nine days, consistent with the 2026 seasonal outlook for near- or slightly above-normal warmth. Short-term model consensus has narrowed the expected peak into this narrow band, with modest spread arising from variable thunderstorm timing and boundary-layer moisture. Market-implied odds align closely with these ensemble probabilities, reflecting traders’ aggregation of the latest model runs and climatological baselines for the date. Updated forecasts issued in the next 12–24 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 6?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 6?
28°C 42%
29°C 26%
27°C 22%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
22%
28°C
42%
29°C
26%
30°C
8%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 42%
29°C 26%
27°C 22%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
$83 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$89 Vol.
1%
25°C
$114 Vol.
2%
26°C
$52 Vol.
7%
27°C
$95 Vol.
22%
28°C
$1,933 Vol.
42%
29°C
$154 Vol.
26%
30°C
$76 Vol.
8%
31°C
$85 Vol.
1%
32°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Environment and Climate Change Canada and international ensembles point to a daily high most likely between 27–29°C in Toronto on August 6, driven by warm southerly flow and limited cloud cover under a building ridge. Recent long-range guidance for early August highlights above-average temperatures across southern Ontario through the first nine days, consistent with the 2026 seasonal outlook for near- or slightly above-normal warmth. Short-term model consensus has narrowed the expected peak into this narrow band, with modest spread arising from variable thunderstorm timing and boundary-layer moisture. Market-implied odds align closely with these ensemble probabilities, reflecting traders’ aggregation of the latest model runs and climatological baselines for the date. Updated forecasts issued in the next 12–24 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,717End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Environment and Climate Change Canada and international ensembles point to a daily high most likely between 27–29°C in Toronto on August 6, driven by warm southerly flow and limited cloud cover under a building ridge. Recent long-range guidance for early August highlights above-average temperatures across southern Ontario through the first nine days, consistent with the 2026 seasonal outlook for near- or slightly above-normal warmth. Short-term model consensus has narrowed the expected peak into this narrow band, with modest spread arising from variable thunderstorm timing and boundary-layer moisture. Market-implied odds align closely with these ensemble probabilities, reflecting traders’ aggregation of the latest model runs and climatological baselines for the date. Updated forecasts issued in the next 12–24 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,717End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from Environment and Climate Change Canada and international ensembles point to a daily high most likely between 27–29°C in Toronto on August 6, driven by warm southerly flow and limited cloud cover under a building ridge. Recent long-range guidance for early August highlights above-average temperatures across southern Ontario through the first nine days, consistent with the 2026 seasonal outlook for near- or slightly above-normal warmth. Short-term model consensus has narrowed the expected peak into this narrow band, with modest spread arising from variable thunderstorm timing and boundary-layer moisture. Market-implied odds align closely with these ensemble probabilities, reflecting traders’ aggregation of the latest model runs and climatological baselines for the date. Updated forecasts issued in the next 12–24 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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