Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a peak temperature in Beijing on August 6 likely falling between 36–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge and limited daytime cloud cover. This positions 37 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 38 °C close behind if stronger insolation develops. Afternoon humidity and any scattered convection could cap readings nearer 36 °C, while the urban heat-island effect supports the upper end of the range. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping lower probabilities on 35 °C or below and negligible odds above 39 °C. Updated guidance expected from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 6?
37°C 37%
38°C 27%
36°C 16%
39°C 9%
NEW
$19,666 Vol.
NEW
$19,666 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
16%
37°C
37%
38°C
27%
39°C
9%
40°C or higher
1%
37°C 37%
38°C 27%
36°C 16%
39°C 9%
NEW
$19,666 Vol.
NEW
$19,666 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
30°C or below
$343 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$643 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,885 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,518 Vol.
2%
35°C
$933 Vol.
5%
36°C
$6,390 Vol.
16%
37°C
$4,035 Vol.
37%
38°C
$1,468 Vol.
27%
39°C
$1,267 Vol.
9%
40°C or higher
$860 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a peak temperature in Beijing on August 6 likely falling between 36–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge and limited daytime cloud cover. This positions 37 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 38 °C close behind if stronger insolation develops. Afternoon humidity and any scattered convection could cap readings nearer 36 °C, while the urban heat-island effect supports the upper end of the range. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping lower probabilities on 35 °C or below and negligible odds above 39 °C. Updated guidance expected from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$19,666End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a peak temperature in Beijing on August 6 likely falling between 36–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge and limited daytime cloud cover. This positions 37 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 38 °C close behind if stronger insolation develops. Afternoon humidity and any scattered convection could cap readings nearer 36 °C, while the urban heat-island effect supports the upper end of the range. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping lower probabilities on 35 °C or below and negligible odds above 39 °C. Updated guidance expected from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,666End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a peak temperature in Beijing on August 6 likely falling between 36–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge and limited daytime cloud cover. This positions 37 °C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, with 38 °C close behind if stronger insolation develops. Afternoon humidity and any scattered convection could cap readings nearer 36 °C, while the urban heat-island effect supports the upper end of the range. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping lower probabilities on 35 °C or below and negligible odds above 39 °C. Updated guidance expected from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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