Forecast models from major centers show Moscow's August 8 maximum temperature most likely peaking near 24–25 °C, with the close market split reflecting genuine ensemble spread in guidance. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture, surface wind direction under a weak high-pressure ridge, and the strength of daytime heating over the urban heat island create the narrow range between these two outcomes. Official observations from the primary Moscow station will determine resolution, and any last-minute shift in the 500 hPa pattern or cloud cover timing could tip the daily high by 1 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus while accounting for typical short-range forecast uncertainty at this lead time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 8?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 8?
25°C 45%
24°C 40%
26°C 9%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
7%
24°C
40%
25°C
45%
26°C
9%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 45%
24°C 40%
26°C 9%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
20°C or below
$193 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$334 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$281 Vol.
7%
24°C
$669 Vol.
40%
25°C
$425 Vol.
45%
26°C
$214 Vol.
9%
27°C
$325 Vol.
2%
28°C
$183 Vol.
1%
29°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major centers show Moscow's August 8 maximum temperature most likely peaking near 24–25 °C, with the close market split reflecting genuine ensemble spread in guidance. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture, surface wind direction under a weak high-pressure ridge, and the strength of daytime heating over the urban heat island create the narrow range between these two outcomes. Official observations from the primary Moscow station will determine resolution, and any last-minute shift in the 500 hPa pattern or cloud cover timing could tip the daily high by 1 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus while accounting for typical short-range forecast uncertainty at this lead time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,156End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major centers show Moscow's August 8 maximum temperature most likely peaking near 24–25 °C, with the close market split reflecting genuine ensemble spread in guidance. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture, surface wind direction under a weak high-pressure ridge, and the strength of daytime heating over the urban heat island create the narrow range between these two outcomes. Official observations from the primary Moscow station will determine resolution, and any last-minute shift in the 500 hPa pattern or cloud cover timing could tip the daily high by 1 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus while accounting for typical short-range forecast uncertainty at this lead time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,156End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from major centers show Moscow's August 8 maximum temperature most likely peaking near 24–25 °C, with the close market split reflecting genuine ensemble spread in guidance. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture, surface wind direction under a weak high-pressure ridge, and the strength of daytime heating over the urban heat island create the narrow range between these two outcomes. Official observations from the primary Moscow station will determine resolution, and any last-minute shift in the 500 hPa pattern or cloud cover timing could tip the daily high by 1 °C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus while accounting for typical short-range forecast uncertainty at this lead time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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