Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate a daytime high near 28°C for São Paulo on August 8, consistent with the market’s leading 28°C outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, including typical August dryness and moderate northwesterly flow, support temperatures 3–4°C above the monthly average of 23–25°C without triggering stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited variability, with possible peaks to 29–30°C if cloud cover remains minimal, aligning with the combined 43% probability on those bins. No significant cold front or heat anomaly has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift consensus away from this narrow range, though final resolution hinges on official INMET observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 8?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 8?
28°C 37%
29°C 26%
30°C 18%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
14%
28°C
37%
29°C
26%
30°C
18%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 37%
29°C 26%
30°C 18%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
$127 Vol.
1%
23°C
$192 Vol.
1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
1%
25°C
$47 Vol.
2%
26°C
$137 Vol.
5%
27°C
$397 Vol.
14%
28°C
$219 Vol.
37%
29°C
$107 Vol.
26%
30°C
$324 Vol.
18%
31°C
$71 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$35 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate a daytime high near 28°C for São Paulo on August 8, consistent with the market’s leading 28°C outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, including typical August dryness and moderate northwesterly flow, support temperatures 3–4°C above the monthly average of 23–25°C without triggering stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited variability, with possible peaks to 29–30°C if cloud cover remains minimal, aligning with the combined 43% probability on those bins. No significant cold front or heat anomaly has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift consensus away from this narrow range, though final resolution hinges on official INMET observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,666End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate a daytime high near 28°C for São Paulo on August 8, consistent with the market’s leading 28°C outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, including typical August dryness and moderate northwesterly flow, support temperatures 3–4°C above the monthly average of 23–25°C without triggering stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited variability, with possible peaks to 29–30°C if cloud cover remains minimal, aligning with the combined 43% probability on those bins. No significant cold front or heat anomaly has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift consensus away from this narrow range, though final resolution hinges on official INMET observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,666End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate a daytime high near 28°C for São Paulo on August 8, consistent with the market’s leading 28°C outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions, including typical August dryness and moderate northwesterly flow, support temperatures 3–4°C above the monthly average of 23–25°C without triggering stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited variability, with possible peaks to 29–30°C if cloud cover remains minimal, aligning with the combined 43% probability on those bins. No significant cold front or heat anomaly has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift consensus away from this narrow range, though final resolution hinges on official INMET observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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