Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS place Paris's daily minimum temperature on August 9 near 16–18°C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on 17°C. Primary drivers include moderate southerly flow advecting warmer air, variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and the timing of any late-day showers that could suppress the overnight low. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 15°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly elevated values due to the broader heat pattern across western Europe. Updated guidance from Météo-France and 48-hour model cycles will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 9?
17°C 30%
18°C 25%
16°C 16%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
14°C or below
5%
15°C
6%
16°C
16%
17°C
30%
18°C
25%
19°C
10%
20°C
6%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
17°C 30%
18°C 25%
16°C 16%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
6%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$110 Vol.
10%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C
$12 Vol.
4%
22°C
$274 Vol.
2%
23°C
$263 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS place Paris's daily minimum temperature on August 9 near 16–18°C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on 17°C. Primary drivers include moderate southerly flow advecting warmer air, variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and the timing of any late-day showers that could suppress the overnight low. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 15°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly elevated values due to the broader heat pattern across western Europe. Updated guidance from Météo-France and 48-hour model cycles will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$671End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS place Paris's daily minimum temperature on August 9 near 16–18°C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on 17°C. Primary drivers include moderate southerly flow advecting warmer air, variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and the timing of any late-day showers that could suppress the overnight low. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 15°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly elevated values due to the broader heat pattern across western Europe. Updated guidance from Météo-France and 48-hour model cycles will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$671End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS place Paris's daily minimum temperature on August 9 near 16–18°C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on 17°C. Primary drivers include moderate southerly flow advecting warmer air, variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and the timing of any late-day showers that could suppress the overnight low. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 15°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly elevated values due to the broader heat pattern across western Europe. Updated guidance from Météo-France and 48-hour model cycles will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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