Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies highlight a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over eastern China sustaining elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Shanghai, with model consensus from runs like ECMWF and GFS favoring a low of 27°C on August 9 amid humidity levels above 70% that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where recent August nights have run 2–3°C above the 25–26°C climatological average due to minimal cloud cover and southerly flow. Traders have priced 27°C and 28°C as the top outcomes at combined 66% implied probability, reflecting stable warm patterns without significant frontal passages expected before resolution. New model updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours could shift these odds if a cooling disturbance emerges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
27°C 36%
28°C 32%
26°C 17%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
6%
26°C
17%
27°C
36%
28°C
32%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 36%
28°C 32%
26°C 17%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
22°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$17 Vol.
4%
24°C
$20 Vol.
4%
25°C
$22 Vol.
6%
26°C
$31 Vol.
17%
27°C
$34 Vol.
36%
28°C
$55 Vol.
32%
29°C
$43 Vol.
7%
30°C
$50 Vol.
1%
31°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies highlight a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over eastern China sustaining elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Shanghai, with model consensus from runs like ECMWF and GFS favoring a low of 27°C on August 9 amid humidity levels above 70% that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where recent August nights have run 2–3°C above the 25–26°C climatological average due to minimal cloud cover and southerly flow. Traders have priced 27°C and 28°C as the top outcomes at combined 66% implied probability, reflecting stable warm patterns without significant frontal passages expected before resolution. New model updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours could shift these odds if a cooling disturbance emerges.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$380End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies highlight a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over eastern China sustaining elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Shanghai, with model consensus from runs like ECMWF and GFS favoring a low of 27°C on August 9 amid humidity levels above 70% that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where recent August nights have run 2–3°C above the 25–26°C climatological average due to minimal cloud cover and southerly flow. Traders have priced 27°C and 28°C as the top outcomes at combined 66% implied probability, reflecting stable warm patterns without significant frontal passages expected before resolution. New model updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours could shift these odds if a cooling disturbance emerges.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$380End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies highlight a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over eastern China sustaining elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Shanghai, with model consensus from runs like ECMWF and GFS favoring a low of 27°C on August 9 amid humidity levels above 70% that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where recent August nights have run 2–3°C above the 25–26°C climatological average due to minimal cloud cover and southerly flow. Traders have priced 27°C and 28°C as the top outcomes at combined 66% implied probability, reflecting stable warm patterns without significant frontal passages expected before resolution. New model updates from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 48 hours could shift these odds if a cooling disturbance emerges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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