Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 7 will likely reach 36–38 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak southerly flow advecting warm continental air. This follows a brief early-August cool spell and aligns with above-average conditions for central Spain, where climatological August highs average near 33 °C. The market’s concentration on 38 °C (47.5 % implied probability) and 39 °C (29 %) reflects the current consensus of 37–38 °C readings from the latest ECMWF and GFS runs, tempered by typical model spread of ±1–2 °C near the peak of the diurnal cycle. Updated model guidance and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
38°C 48%
39°C 29%
37°C 10%
40°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
2%
36°C
4%
37°C
10%
38°C
48%
39°C
29%
40°C
9%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 48%
39°C 29%
37°C 10%
40°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
$19 Vol.
2%
36°C
$12 Vol.
4%
37°C
$21 Vol.
10%
38°C
$193 Vol.
48%
39°C
$64 Vol.
29%
40°C
$91 Vol.
9%
41°C
$136 Vol.
2%
42°C
$67 Vol.
1%
43°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$397 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 7 will likely reach 36–38 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak southerly flow advecting warm continental air. This follows a brief early-August cool spell and aligns with above-average conditions for central Spain, where climatological August highs average near 33 °C. The market’s concentration on 38 °C (47.5 % implied probability) and 39 °C (29 %) reflects the current consensus of 37–38 °C readings from the latest ECMWF and GFS runs, tempered by typical model spread of ±1–2 °C near the peak of the diurnal cycle. Updated model guidance and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,055End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 7 will likely reach 36–38 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak southerly flow advecting warm continental air. This follows a brief early-August cool spell and aligns with above-average conditions for central Spain, where climatological August highs average near 33 °C. The market’s concentration on 38 °C (47.5 % implied probability) and 39 °C (29 %) reflects the current consensus of 37–38 °C readings from the latest ECMWF and GFS runs, tempered by typical model spread of ±1–2 °C near the peak of the diurnal cycle. Updated model guidance and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,055End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 7 will likely reach 36–38 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak southerly flow advecting warm continental air. This follows a brief early-August cool spell and aligns with above-average conditions for central Spain, where climatological August highs average near 33 °C. The market’s concentration on 38 °C (47.5 % implied probability) and 39 °C (29 %) reflects the current consensus of 37–38 °C readings from the latest ECMWF and GFS runs, tempered by typical model spread of ±1–2 °C near the peak of the diurnal cycle. Updated model guidance and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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