Ongoing European heatwave conditions, including a fourth major episode tracked by Météo-France, are elevating overnight lows in Paris ahead of August 8, with ensemble models indicating limited radiative cooling under a warm air mass and possible residual cloud cover. This supports the market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 14°C (46.5% implied probability) or 15°C (20%), above the typical August baseline of 15°C, as daytime highs are projected to reach 28–30°C or higher. Recent forecast updates from Météo-France and ECMWF show stable high-pressure steering patterns that suppress usual nocturnal drops, though minor model spread around 13–16°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any late timing shifts in the heat dome. Traders are weighting official guidance and consensus runs heavily given the short forecast horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 8?
14°C 47%
15°C 20%
13°C 12%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
11°C or below
9%
12°C
9%
13°C
12%
14°C
47%
15°C
20%
16°C
5%
17°C
8%
18°C
11%
19°C
8%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
2%
14°C 47%
15°C 20%
13°C 12%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
9%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
12%
14°C
$5 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$5 Vol.
5%
17°C
$27 Vol.
8%
18°C
$259 Vol.
11%
19°C
$254 Vol.
8%
20°C
$10 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing European heatwave conditions, including a fourth major episode tracked by Météo-France, are elevating overnight lows in Paris ahead of August 8, with ensemble models indicating limited radiative cooling under a warm air mass and possible residual cloud cover. This supports the market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 14°C (46.5% implied probability) or 15°C (20%), above the typical August baseline of 15°C, as daytime highs are projected to reach 28–30°C or higher. Recent forecast updates from Météo-France and ECMWF show stable high-pressure steering patterns that suppress usual nocturnal drops, though minor model spread around 13–16°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any late timing shifts in the heat dome. Traders are weighting official guidance and consensus runs heavily given the short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing European heatwave conditions, including a fourth major episode tracked by Météo-France, are elevating overnight lows in Paris ahead of August 8, with ensemble models indicating limited radiative cooling under a warm air mass and possible residual cloud cover. This supports the market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 14°C (46.5% implied probability) or 15°C (20%), above the typical August baseline of 15°C, as daytime highs are projected to reach 28–30°C or higher. Recent forecast updates from Météo-France and ECMWF show stable high-pressure steering patterns that suppress usual nocturnal drops, though minor model spread around 13–16°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any late timing shifts in the heat dome. Traders are weighting official guidance and consensus runs heavily given the short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing European heatwave conditions, including a fourth major episode tracked by Météo-France, are elevating overnight lows in Paris ahead of August 8, with ensemble models indicating limited radiative cooling under a warm air mass and possible residual cloud cover. This supports the market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 14°C (46.5% implied probability) or 15°C (20%), above the typical August baseline of 15°C, as daytime highs are projected to reach 28–30°C or higher. Recent forecast updates from Météo-France and ECMWF show stable high-pressure steering patterns that suppress usual nocturnal drops, though minor model spread around 13–16°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any late timing shifts in the heat dome. Traders are weighting official guidance and consensus runs heavily given the short forecast horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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