Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs point to peak temperatures of 35–37°C in Madrid on August 8 under a rebuilding subtropical ridge, with limited moisture and clear skies favoring strong daytime heating. Trader consensus clustering around 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in how quickly a residual warm air mass from North Africa will reinforce surface temperatures after early-August cooling, plus typical model spread in the 48–72-hour window. Historical August maxima near 34°C provide context, but persistent above-normal signals from seasonal outlooks and recent heatwave dynamics support the slight upward bias in market-implied probabilities. Fresh AEMET and ECMWF updates expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 8?
38°C 47%
37°C 36%
39°C 19%
40°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
36%
38°C
47%
39°C
19%
40°C
3%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
37°C 36%
39°C 19%
40°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
34°C or below
$441 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$467 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,876 Vol.
36%
38°C
$1,099 Vol.
47%
39°C
$1,901 Vol.
19%
40°C
$393 Vol.
3%
41°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$308 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs point to peak temperatures of 35–37°C in Madrid on August 8 under a rebuilding subtropical ridge, with limited moisture and clear skies favoring strong daytime heating. Trader consensus clustering around 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in how quickly a residual warm air mass from North Africa will reinforce surface temperatures after early-August cooling, plus typical model spread in the 48–72-hour window. Historical August maxima near 34°C provide context, but persistent above-normal signals from seasonal outlooks and recent heatwave dynamics support the slight upward bias in market-implied probabilities. Fresh AEMET and ECMWF updates expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,463End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs point to peak temperatures of 35–37°C in Madrid on August 8 under a rebuilding subtropical ridge, with limited moisture and clear skies favoring strong daytime heating. Trader consensus clustering around 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in how quickly a residual warm air mass from North Africa will reinforce surface temperatures after early-August cooling, plus typical model spread in the 48–72-hour window. Historical August maxima near 34°C provide context, but persistent above-normal signals from seasonal outlooks and recent heatwave dynamics support the slight upward bias in market-implied probabilities. Fresh AEMET and ECMWF updates expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,463End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs point to peak temperatures of 35–37°C in Madrid on August 8 under a rebuilding subtropical ridge, with limited moisture and clear skies favoring strong daytime heating. Trader consensus clustering around 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in how quickly a residual warm air mass from North Africa will reinforce surface temperatures after early-August cooling, plus typical model spread in the 48–72-hour window. Historical August maxima near 34°C provide context, but persistent above-normal signals from seasonal outlooks and recent heatwave dynamics support the slight upward bias in market-implied probabilities. Fresh AEMET and ECMWF updates expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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